Washington Wizards vs Cleveland Cavaliers prediction: Cavaliers keep building early leads; Wizards keep trailing at halftime

Fast starts, nervous finishes

Cleveland has spent the first week of the season building leads and then sweating them out. The Cavaliers led Philadelphia 69-45 at halftime. They lost 114-106. A 68-54 halftime edge over Brooklyn ended as a four-point win, and Monday they needed overtime and a Donovan Mitchell fadeaway with 48 seconds left to escape Minnesota 127-125. Kenny Atkinson called his offense "a little clunky."

Washington runs the other direction. The Wizards trailed at halftime in all four of their games, and their 51.0 first-half points per game rank 29th. Cleveland's 62.3 ranks 7th. If those patterns hold, the Cavs will be ahead at the break. Whether they stay 10 clear after it is the whole question for this spread.

Tempo is Cleveland's weapon

No team plays faster than the Cavaliers, who average 111.4 possessions per game, 1st in the league. That speed has a cost: Cleveland turns it over on 16.8% of its possessions, 23rd. Washington is not built to punish those mistakes. The Wizards rank 29th in fast-break points at 8.5 per game and force turnovers at only the 24th-best rate, so Cleveland's sloppiness may not show up on the scoreboard.

The Cavaliers' backcourt is new around Mitchell, who averaged 27.9 points last season. Darius Garland is gone to the Clippers, and James Harden arrived from them after averaging 23.6 points and 8.0 assists there. Cleveland returns 63.6% of last season's minutes, so last year's numbers are only a loose guide.

A defense that changed overnight

Last season Washington went 17-65 and allowed 119.6 points per 100 possessions, worst in the league. This version looks nothing like that. Opponents post a 49.7% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times), 5th-best, and make just 29.3% of their threes, 3rd-best. The Wizards also keep opponents off the line, ranking 3rd in opponent free throw rate.

The catch is their own shooting. Washington makes 29.4% from three, 28th. Bub Carrington's 40.8% from deep last season is the most reliable outside stroke on the roster. Cleveland hits 36.6% from three this season, 11th, and Jaylon Tyson shot 44.6% last season. If the Wizards' perimeter defense cools even slightly, that shooting gap decides the margin.

Davis and Ayton test the rim

Washington's offense lives inside. The Wizards score 55.0 points in the paint per game, 4th, and rank 3rd in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt). Anthony Davis averaged 20.4 points and 11.1 rebounds in 20 games for Dallas last season, and Ayton shot 67.1% for the Lakers.

Cleveland's answer is shot blocking. The Cavs block 14.4% of opponents' two-point attempts, 3rd in the league, with Evan Mobley swatting 1.7 per game last season. If Davis and Ayton draw fouls rather than getting stuffed, Washington can slow this game to a crawl and keep it inside the number.

Dybantsa and the injury list

The No. 1 pick, AJ Dybantsa, has missed all four games with a left ankle sprain from the preseason finale and was listed as questionable Tuesday. Keefe said he is "progressing in a very positive way" but did not say whether he plays, and at least one report called his debut unlikely. Treat his status as unsettled until tipoff.

Justin Champagnie (right foot) is out after being helped off at Charlotte, along with Tristan Vukcevic (hip) and Jamir Watkins (torn ACL). Davis is not on the report after Keefe thought he took a hit to the hand. For Cleveland, Nae'Qwan Tomlin (back) is out, Khalifa Diop's knee status for Wednesday is unconfirmed, and there has been no new word on Jarrett Allen's sore knee since the opener. Mitchell, Harden and Mobley all played Monday.

What the market is saying

The spread has sat at Cavaliers -9.5 since our feed first saw it, while the total has climbed from 237.5 to 239. History favors Cleveland, which swept all four meetings last season, including a 148-115 rout in Washington. But the Cavs have not covered a game yet, and three of Washington's four games have gone under.

• Halftime margin: a double-digit Cleveland lead may not be enough.
• Wizards' free throw attempts against Cleveland's rim protection.
• Whether Dybantsa is in uniform.