Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction: Pelicans get a quick rematch with short-handed Nuggets after overtime collapse

Saturday's script, rerun at home

The Pelicans led Denver 73-57 at halftime Saturday and still lost 141-135 in overtime. That defeat left them 0-3, with all three losses decided by six points or fewer. Now they get the same opponent on their own floor, and Denver arrives in worse shape than it left.

The Nuggets followed that comeback with a 134-114 home loss to Golden State on Monday. Aaron Gordon was ejected after two technicals in that game, though no suspension had been reported. Denver is 1-2 and 0-3 against the spread. The Nuggets have also won all four meetings between these teams across the last two seasons, so the Pelicans' close calls haven't turned into results against this opponent.

The paint is open both ways

This matchup lives inside. New Orleans scores 60.7 points in the paint per game, 1st of 30, and takes threes on just 34.2% of its shots, the lowest attempt rate in the league. Denver's interior defense hasn't held up: it allows 52.7 paint points a game (22nd) and lets opponents shoot 57.1% on twos (22nd).

The trouble for New Orleans is that its own paint defense is worse. The Pelicans allow 58.0 paint points a game, 30th of 30, and opponents hit 61.5% of their twos (29th). Yves Missi, an opening-night starter, is out with a left knee bone bruise. That pushes more of the center work onto Derik Queen and Karlo Matkovic against Nikola Jokic, who averaged 27.7 points and 12.9 rebounds last season.

Free throws could tilt the margin. New Orleans gets to the line often, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per shot) of 34.2%, 4th in the league, and makes 86.2% of them. Denver rarely fouls, allowing a rate of 23.3% (2nd). The Pelicans hand opponents a 37.0% rate (29th), so Jokic and Murray should get chances at the stripe.

Denver's wing rotation is thinning

Denver returns only 61.1% of last season's minutes. That helps explain why the league's top offense from last season, at 119.6 points per 100 possessions, sits 13th at 109.8 this season. The defense has slipped to 27th, allowing 118.2 per 100.

Injuries are making the rotation thinner still. Cameron Johnson (right ankle) is doubtful as of Wednesday after missing Monday's game. He shot 43.0% from three last season, and when he left the Thunder game, Gordon was left as Denver's only real perimeter threat. Spencer Jones (hamstring) and Alpha Diallo (personal) are out. Julian Strawther is out with a left knee sprain diagnosed in mid-October, with a re-evaluation set for six weeks later.

That puts more weight on DeMar DeRozan, who averaged 18.4 points for Sacramento last season, and on Gordon. Denver is shooting 31.1% from three as a team (23rd), so the Nuggets lean harder on Jokic's playmaking and Jamal Murray's shot creation. Trevon Brazile has filled in as an injury stand-in. For the Pelicans, Jordan Poole (illness) is listed as probable.

Pace and the first half

The Pelicans want a track meet. They rank 3rd in pace at 108.5 possessions per game, while Denver sits 22nd at 102.9. New Orleans also starts fast, scoring 63.7 first-half points per game (3rd). Denver averages 53.7 before the break, 25th in the league.

The Nuggets haven't been fast starters, and Saturday showed it. They were the ones closing late, and the Pelicans were the ones fading. Expect New Orleans to try for another early lead. The open question is whether it can protect one this time.

What the market is saying

Denver is a 5.5-point road favorite, and the line hasn't moved since our feed first recorded it. That is a smaller number than Saturday's 11.5, which the Pelicans covered. The total sits at 241.0, right around the 239.5 that went over in the first meeting.

• All three Pelicans games have gone over; they allow 128.0 points a game (29th).
• Denver has failed to cover all three games this season.
• Watch Johnson's status near tip: a Nuggets lineup without him has fewer shooters to space the floor around Jokic.