Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors prediction: Banchero-less Magic walk into Toronto's turnover machine

Turnovers decide this one

Both teams arrive missing a headliner, but only one of them still has its identity intact. Toronto has built its 2-1 start on defense: it allows 95.6 points per 100 possessions, best in the league, and no team strips the ball more. The Raptors force turnovers on 22.7% of opponent possessions and lead the NBA in steal rate.

That pressure turns into easy offense. Toronto scores 23.0 fast-break points per game, 2nd of 30, while Orlando manages just 10.3, 27th.

The Magic are already middle of the pack protecting the ball, giving it away on 16.3% of their possessions. Now they lose Banchero, out four to six weeks with a high-ankle sprain, and Suggs, who has a bone bruise in his right knee and will be re-evaluated in two weeks. Banchero averaged 22.2 points and 5.2 assists last season. Jonathan Isaac is also listed out with a knee issue. More of the ball falls to Desmond Bane and Anthony Black, and every live-ball turnover hands Toronto a runout.

Orlando lives behind the arc

The Magic have reshaped themselves into a perimeter team. Threes make up 47.1% of their shot attempts, 3rd most in the league, and they assist on 70.7% of their made baskets, 2nd. The problem is the finishing: they hit 32.2% from deep, 20th, and score 103.2 points per 100 possessions, 25th.

Toronto's perimeter defense doesn't offer relief. Opponents shoot 29.8% from three against the Raptors, 5th best.

Bane is the shooter who can bend this. He made 39.1% of his threes last season. Nikola Vucevic, a newcomer, hit 36.9% from deep for Chicago last season and gives Orlando a center who can pull Jakob Poeltl away from the rim. Franz Wagner also showed in Sunday's win at New York that he can swing a game late, scoring 21 of his 23 points in the fourth quarter.

One escape valve: Toronto fouls. Its opponent free throw rate of 44.4% ranks 30th, though Orlando converts only 73.4% at the line, 22nd.

Toronto's offense without Leonard

The Raptors' defense is elite; their shooting is not. Their effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, sits at 47.1%, 29th, and they make 26.2% from three, also 29th.

Losing Leonard makes that harder. He averaged 27.9 points for the Clippers last season and is out for weeks with swelling in his left knee, though an MRI showed no structural damage. Scottie Barnes went 0-for-12 in Sunday's 117-94 loss at Minnesota, and coach Darko Rajakovic said he isn't worried about him.

Ja'Kobe Walter replaced Leonard in the lineup Sunday and led Toronto in scoring. Nate Bittle is listed out with a foot fracture, though his status wasn't fully settled Wednesday.

Toronto can win ugly on the glass. It grabs 30.8% of its own misses, 8th, against an Orlando defense that ranks 22nd in defensive rebounding. Second chances can cover for missed jumpers.

What the market is saying

Toronto first showed at -5 in our feed and has drifted to -4.5, a half-point move toward Orlando. The total hasn't budged from 223.5.

The under has been Toronto's companion: 0-3 to the over this season, and the Raptors allow 50.3 first-half points per game, 3rd fewest. Orlando scores 51.7 in first halves, 28th. The Magic did cover their last game, winning outright at New York as 6.5-point underdogs.

The last meeting was lopsided, a 139-87 Toronto win in March, but both rosters look different now. These teams play again Oct. 30, the first of two games in three nights.

• Orlando's turnover count in the first quarter
• Bane's three-point volume with Banchero out
• Whether Barnes finds his shot after Sunday's blank