New York Knicks vs Chicago Bulls prediction: Slow-walking Knicks bring a 0-4 under record to Chicago's track meet

Whose speed sets the night

Both teams are 1-3, but they got there in opposite ways. Chicago plays at 110.9 possessions per game, 2nd in the league, and has allowed a league-worst 129.5 points per game. New York sits 28th in pace and scores 104.0 points a night, 29th of 30.

That gap is the whole question behind a 234.5 total. The Knicks have gone under in all four of their games, including Tuesday's 111-97 win over Detroit. Their slow tempo isn't a fluke either: they ranked 28th in pace last season too, and players still on the roster logged 86.4% of last season's minutes. If New York controls the possession count, Chicago's scoreboard numbers shrink with it.

Chicago lives at the line

The Bulls' offense is the least efficient in the league at 99.8 points per 100 possessions, and the jump shot is the reason. They hit just 23.8% of their threes, last in the NBA, while still firing them at the 5th-highest rate.

What keeps them afloat is the whistle. Chicago ranks 1st in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) at 38.3%. New York's defense is built to take that away, holding opponents to a 6th-best free throw rate. The Knicks do concede plenty of threes, allowing the 4th-highest opponent attempt rate, which hands Chicago open looks it hasn't been making.

Last season's Bulls numbers are a weak guide here, since only 57.2% of last season's minutes came back. The newcomer who can change the shooting story is Norman Powell, who hit 38.0% from three for Miami last season.

Towns and an empty middle

Towns arrives off a 27-point, 20-rebound night against the previously unbeaten Pistons, the game where New York won the third quarter 37-13. He now faces a Chicago frontcourt without Nic Claxton, who is out with a left hamstring strain and carries an estimated return of Nov. 4.

The Bulls have started Jalen Smith, used Zach Collins, and gone small with Leonard Miller. Patrick Williams (groin) and Tobe Awaka (ankle) are both questionable, and Miller's role could grow if both sit. Chicago already ranks 24th in defensive rebound rate and 25th in block rate. The Knicks' own interior scoring has been poor, with a league-worst 47.6% on twos, so second chances may matter more than first looks.

Tired legs and a steady line

Chicago has had a day off since losing 134-99 at Boston. Jose Alvarado's status is unsettled: he missed Tuesday with a left ankle sprain and is listed as day-to-day for Wednesday.

The market hasn't blinked. Knicks -7 and the total have held since our feed first recorded them, across 11 books. The Knicks won the last three meetings, the most recent a 136-96 rout on April 3, and both teams are 1-3 against the spread this year.

What to watch - Whether Chicago can push the pace early before New York settles into half-court sets - Bulls free throw attempts against a Knicks defense that rarely fouls - Towns' offensive rebounds with Claxton out - Fourth-quarter legs for a Knicks team on the second night of a back-to-back