San Antonio Spurs vs Utah Jazz prediction: Wembanyama gets a short-handed Jazz frontcourt on the second night

A frontcourt running out of bodies

Utah built this season around a bigger, more serious frontcourt, and it lasted four games. Jaren Jackson Jr. tore the MCL in his right knee in Monday's 110-105 loss to Memphis and will miss at least six weeks. Lauri Markkanen sprained his right wrist in the same game and is questionable. Jaxson Hayes is questionable with a sore shoulder, and Jusuf Nurkic remains out with a partial plantar plate tear in his right foot. If Markkanen and Hayes can't go, Will Hardy is left choosing among Mo Bamba and an expanded role for Kyle Filipowski.

That is a grim setup against Victor Wembanyama, who just posted 29 points on 14-for-21 shooting in Tuesday's 130-103 rout of Sacramento. The Spurs already score 55.0 points in the paint per game, 4th of 30. Utah's block rate (blocks per opponent two-point attempt) ranks 5th, but Jackson is out, so that rim protection takes a hit.

Utah's best weapon is the whistle

The Jazz have found one reliable source of offense: the foul line. Their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) sits at 34.0%, 5th in the league. San Antonio is the worst possible opponent for that habit. The Spurs allow the lowest opponent free throw rate in the NBA, 20.3%, and they led the league in that stat last season too.

The gap runs the other way as well. San Antonio rarely gets to the line itself (27th in free throw rate), but Utah fouls a lot, ranking 26th in opponent free throw rate. If the Jazz can't win this column, their margin for error against a deeper roster mostly disappears.

Clean possessions, then a sprint

San Antonio protects the ball as well as anyone, with a turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions) of 13.2%, 2nd of 30. Utah barely forces mistakes, ranking 29th in forced turnover rate. That points to a Spurs team that should get a shot up on nearly every trip.

When the Spurs do get stops, they run. They lead the league with 23.2 fast-break points per game, while Utah ranks dead last at 7.8. The open question is legs: San Antonio played at home Tuesday night and flew to Salt Lake City for the second game of a back-to-back. Mitch Johnson has talked about managing a heavy early schedule, and no rest decisions for tonight had surfaced as of Wednesday. Tobias Harris (calf) is listed out again, and Jayden Quaintance is still recovering from knee surgery.

A big number that hasn't moved

The Spurs are 12.5-point favorites with a total of 233.5, and neither number has budged since our feed first recorded the game Wednesday morning. That stability came after the Jackson news was already out.

The ATS records lean hard in one direction. Utah is 0-4 against the spread, failing to cover even in its lone win, a 120-119 escape against New Orleans as a 1.5-point favorite. San Antonio is 2-2, covering its last two by wide margins as a big favorite, including a 122-106 win at Dallas laying 14.5.

On the total, the Spurs have gone under in three of four games, and they went under 39 times in 66 lined games last season. That number carries weight because San Antonio returns 93.9% of last season's minutes. Utah returns just 64.8%, so its last-season profile says less about this group. The Jazz allow opponents to shoot 39.6% from three (28th), which could help a Spurs team that went 2-1 against Utah last season, including a 126-109 win in Salt Lake City.