Los Angeles Lakers vs Los Angeles Clippers prediction: Short-handed Clippers must protect the ball against Doncic's tired Lakers

The Clippers keep giving it away

Five days after losing 125-117 at the Lakers, the Clippers get the rematch on their own floor against an opponent playing for the second straight night. They will do it without Brandon Ingram, Bradley Beal, Max Strus or Rui Hachimura, and with a habit that could decide this before fatigue does.

When the Clippers get a shot up, it tends to go in. Their effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 shots, is 58.3%, 3rd in the league. The trouble is how many trips never reach a shot. Their turnover rate is 22.3 per 100 possessions, worst in the league, which is how a team shooting this well sits 18th in offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions).

The Lakers are set up to punish it. They force 17.6 turnovers per 100 possessions, 6th in the league, and Matisse Thybulle, who averaged 2.0 steals a game for Portland last season, has started every game. The Clippers have their own transition weapon, scoring 23.0 fast-break points a game, but that only helps if they keep the ball long enough to get stops.

Doncic and a soft middle

Nobody has shot better than the Lakers. They lead the league in effective field goal percentage at 64.6%, and they also rank first in both 3-point and 2-point percentage. Luka Doncic drives it. He scored 41 in Tuesday's loss to Portland after averaging 33.5 points last season.

The Clippers' defense has a clear shape. Opponents attempt threes against them less often than against any other team, but the Clippers allow 56.7 paint points per game, 29th. With Yanic Konan Niederhauser recovering from foot surgery, Isaiah Jackson and Brook Lopez are the only healthy centers. Expect the Lakers to attack the lane and the line: their free throw rate, free throws attempted per field goal attempt, is 37.3%, 2nd in the league.

Second night, thinner benches

This is the Lakers' first back-to-back, coming off a 136-129 home loss to Portland, while the Clippers have had three days off. Adou Thiero (knee) and Cameron Carr (oblique) sat out Tuesday, neither has made his debut, and no update for tonight had surfaced. Walker Kessler has played through a finger splint. Jake LaRavia missed the first meeting with an ankle sprain but has been off the injury report since. Collin Sexton is back from a calf issue.

The Clippers' list is longer. Hachimura has been ruled out with a sore left quadriceps, so he misses a shot at his old team. Ingram, acquired in the Kawhi Leonard trade, is out after Achilles surgery. Beal hasn't been cleared for 5-on-5 work, and Strus is out with a torn plantar fascia. That pushes rookie Keaton Wagler, the No. 5 pick, into backup point guard minutes, with Gradey Dick taking a bigger bench role.

Both teams were rebuilt over the summer. The Lakers return 39.9% of last season's minutes and the Clippers 48.7%, so last season's team numbers say little about either.

What the market sees

The Lakers are 4.5-point favorites on the road, and neither that number nor the 228.5 total has moved since our feed first saw the game. The Clippers have covered all three of their games, including the first meeting as 8.5-point underdogs.

The total hinges on the Lakers' defense. Three of their four games have gone over. They rank 23rd in defensive efficiency and 29th in defensive rebound percentage, so the Clippers should get second chances.

First halves could tell the story early. The Lakers score 69.2 first-half points a game, most in the league. The Clippers allow 53.7 before halftime, and that is the test for fresher legs. The home team won every meeting last season, including two Clippers wins on their own floor.