Wyoming vs Denver prediction: Carson Johnson and a rebuilt Denver try to avoid another Wyoming rout
Denver returns little beyond its star guard, and a Wyoming team that won last year's meeting by 42 brings turnover pressure to Hamilton Gymnasium.
- Wyoming should control possessions if its ball pressure carries over; Denver needs a big Johnson day and clean ball security to stay close.
- Carson Johnson against Wyoming's guards: he scored 27 at Wisconsin and carried a 30.3% usage rate.
- No spread or total posted yet. Denver covered as a 25.25-point underdog at Wisconsin, and that game stayed under 162.
Denver starts over again
Last November, Wyoming beat Denver 101-59 in Laramie, with five Cowboys in double figures. The Pioneers arrive at this rematch with almost an entirely different team. Only 27.0% of last season's minutes return, and Denver lists 12 new players in its first year in the West Coast Conference after leaving the Summit League. The league's coaches picked the Pioneers last in the 10-team WCC.
The turnover may not be bad news. Last season's Denver team could score but could not stop anyone. Its adjusted defense (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked 354th of 365. Second-year coach Tim Bergstraser rebuilt the rotation around transfers such as Jordan Rogers from NJIT and Kam Martin from Samford. The first test was a 75-68 loss at Wisconsin, a team rated 25th nationally, which suggests a more competitive group than last season's numbers describe.
Johnson carries the load
Carson Johnson is the reason Denver can stay in games. He scored 27 points in 36 minutes at Wisconsin, and last season he averaged 20.1 points while shooting 41.4% from three. He has little help. Martin shot 30% from the floor in the opener, and Denver assisted on just 30.4% of its made baskets, 342nd nationally. Too many possessions end with Johnson creating something on his own.
Wyoming has more options. Khaden Bennett and Nasir Meyer, a preseason all-Mountain West pick, are the core of a roster that returns 43.0% of last season's minutes. Bennett led the team with 15 points against Regis on a 35.1% usage rate, and Washington State transfer Parker Gerrits added 12 on 4-of-5 shooting.
Live-ball turnovers decide the margin
This is the matchup most likely to swing the game. Denver gave the ball away on 22.9% of its possessions at Wisconsin, 293rd in the country. Wyoming forced turnovers on 27.5% of Regis's trips, and Mike Mora had four steals in 20 minutes off the bench.
There is a caveat. The Regis game came against an opponent with no Division I rating, so Wyoming's defensive numbers are inflated. Still, a team with this much backcourt pressure facing an offense that runs through one ball-handler is a bad fit for the home side. Last season, Denver's turnover rate ranked 28th, so better ball security is possible. It just hasn't shown up with this group yet.
Fouls could keep Denver close
Denver's best route to a close game is the free-throw line. Last season, Wyoming's opponents posted a free-throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) of 46.7%, 361st of 365. That was the Cowboys' worst defensive habit. Johnson shot 88.2% from the line last season, and Denver went 85.7% at Wisconsin.
Last season's numbers are a weak guide for both rosters. But if Wyoming's guards reach in while chasing steals, Denver has the shooters to make it pay.
Setting and the market
This is Denver's home opener, and both teams come in rested: Wyoming has 11 days off and Denver 12. Tip is listed for 3 p.m. ET, though one schedule shows 4 p.m., so check the time before the game. Third-year coach Sundance Wicks brings a team picked fifth in the Mountain West.
No line has been posted. The one market signal is Denver's opener, where the Pioneers covered a large spread at Wisconsin and the game finished well under the total.
Key players
- Khaden Bennett (Wyoming): Led Wyoming with 15 points against Regis on a team-high 35.1% usage rate.
- Nasir Meyer (Wyoming): Averaged 12.9 points last season and opened this one with 11 against Regis.
- Mike Mora (Wyoming): Had four steals and 10 points in 20 minutes in the opener.
- Carson Johnson (Denver): Scored 27 at Wisconsin after averaging 20.1 points last season.
- Kam Martin (Denver): Took on a 27.9% usage rate in his debut but shot 30% from the floor.
- Shaun Wysocki (Denver): Had an effective field goal percentage of 63.4% last season in 19.6 minutes a game.
Numbers that matter
| Denver returning minutes | 27.0% | Most of last season's roster is gone, so last season's team numbers say little about this group. |
|---|---|---|
| Denver turnover rate | 22.9% | Ranked 293rd in the opener, a problem against Wyoming's ball pressure. |
| Wyoming forced turnover rate | 27.5% | Posted against Regis, an opponent without a Division I rating. |
| Wyoming opponent FT rate, last season | 46.7% | Ranked 361st of 365, Denver's best opening if the habit carries over. |
| Last meeting | 101-59 | Wyoming won in Laramie last November. |
Wyoming vs Denver: quick answers
When is Wyoming vs Denver?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET.