Idaho State vs Seattle U prediction: Idaho State's rebuilt roster runs into Seattle U's returning defense

Idaho State starts from scratch

Seattle U beat Idaho State 83-74 at home last November. Almost nobody who played for the Bengals that night is still in the program. Players on this season's roster logged just 3.6% of last season's minutes and 1.7% of its points.

Every major piece of a 13-20 team is gone. That includes Connor Hollenbeck, who averaged 13.2 points, and Martin Kheil, who is now at Iona. Ryan Looney, in his eighth season, rebuilt with additions such as Kenyon DeMuynck, Nathan Amoran and Malachi Johnson. The first look was rough: a 58-94 loss at Utah State, a team ranked 26th in adjusted net efficiency.

That turnover makes last season's Idaho State numbers a poor guide to this team. Seattle is a different story. Its roster accounts for 45.8% of last season's minutes, including starters Will Heimbrodt and Junseok Yeo, from a 21-14 team under sixth-year coach Chris Victor. The game is Seattle's third straight home date to open its home slate, after upcoming visits from Portland State and UTSA.

Seattle's defense sets the floor

Last season Seattle ranked 24th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). It blocked shots at the 17th-highest rate in the country. Heimbrodt anchored that defense with 2.6 blocks a game, and he's back.

That is a hard assignment for an offense still finding itself. Idaho State made 12.0% of its threes at Utah State, which ranks 352nd nationally. The Bengals kept firing anyway, taking 43.9% of their shots from deep. If those shots don't fall, the Bengals have to score inside against Heimbrodt, and that is where Seattle's defense is built to win.

Turnovers and the glass

Seattle's opener exposed one real flaw. The Redhawks turned the ball over on 27.0% of their possessions at Hawai'i, 334th in the country. That is the cleanest opening Idaho State has, and the Bengals forced turnovers at only a middling rate in their own opener.

The boards tilt hard the other way. Seattle grabbed 82.1% of available defensive rebounds at Hawai'i, 32nd nationally. Idaho State collected just 48.3% of its defensive chances at Utah State, which ranks 351st. A team that can't finish possessions gives up second shots, and Seattle's frontcourt should get plenty of them.

New faces carrying the load

Heimbrodt and guard Mason Williams each scored 20 in the 73-74 loss at Hawai'i. Tyler Boston, a Holy Cross transfer who averaged 14.2 points there last season, ran the offense and handed out 6 assists. Cincinnati transfer Halvine Dzellat added a double-double inside.

For Idaho State, MaCarhy Morris led with 15 points and also ran the offense. DeMuynck took the biggest share of the possessions. Neither found much support. Seattle covered as a 1.5-point underdog at Hawai'i, and Idaho State did not cover at Utah State.