Furman vs Belmont prediction: Belmont's turnover and rebounding woes face Furman's rebuilt Paladins

Belmont gave away possessions

Evan Bradds got his first win as Belmont's coach on Nov. 2, beating Southern Indiana 72-54. The debut also handed him a to-do list. The Bruins shot 37% from the field and had 10 turnovers to four assists, even while scoring 27 first-half points. Bradds said afterward his team must improve its defensive rebounding after allowing 16 offensive rebounds.

The season numbers say the same thing. Belmont's turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) is 26.0%, which ranks 329th of 357. Its defensive rebound percentage, the share of opponents' misses it collects, is 64.4%, 273rd. One game against a low-rated opponent is a thin sample, but these are exactly the areas Furman exploits.

The Paladins have grabbed 40.3% of their own misses, 90th nationally. They have turned the ball over on just 9.9% of possessions, 15th. If Belmont doesn't clean up both, Furman will get extra shots on Saturday that the Bruins don't.

Two programs starting over

Neither roster looks much like last season's. Belmont went 26-6 in 2025-26, then lost its coach and its core. Casey Alexander left for Kansas State, and Bradds arrived from Jon Scheyer's staff at Duke. Tyler Lundblade signed with Tennessee, Sam Orme went to Nebraska and Drew Scharnowski followed Bradds's old boss to Duke. Players on this season's roster logged 38.4% of Belmont's minutes last year.

Furman turned over even more. Its returners played 29.5% of last season's minutes, and guard Alex Wilkins left for Kentucky. SoCon coaches still picked the Paladins first. Forwards Charles Johnston and Marcus Kell, a graduate transfer from Western Carolina, made the preseason all-conference team.

That turnover makes last season's adjusted ratings a weak guide. Adjusted efficiency measures points per 100 possessions after accounting for opponents, and on that scale Belmont finished 66th in net rating last season and Furman finished 180th. That gap describes rosters that mostly no longer exist.

Furman fires from deep

Furman takes 51.9% of its shots from three, the 42nd-highest rate in the country. Its effective field goal percentage, which counts a three as 1.5 makes, is 60.5%. Treat those figures with care: they include a 121-52 rout of Bob Jones, an opponent with no Division I rating. The more useful data point is a 79-70 win over Bethune-Cookman on a neutral floor.

The volume fits the program's habits, since Furman ranked 31st in three-point attempt rate last season. It also fits Belmont's recent history. Last season's Bruins let opponents take 49.0% of their shots from three, the sixth-highest rate allowed nationally. Johnston is the shooter to watch. He has made 6 of 9 threes this season after hitting 28.7% from deep last season.

Smiley carries the Bruins

Jack Smiley went from bench scorer to centerpiece in the opener, playing 36 minutes and scoring 24 points. He shot 43.6% from three in a reserve role last season, and Belmont needs that touch more now. Eoin Dillon, a 44.6% three-point shooter last season, went 1 of 5 from deep against Southern Indiana.

Isaiah West had shoulder surgery in the offseason, and Bradds had expected him to be ready for the start of the season. West started the opener and grabbed eight rebounds, so he appears to be past it. Center Vincent Neugebauer, a transfer from Florida Atlantic, gives Belmont a rim protector. That matters against a Furman frontcourt that can score inside and out.

Series and setting

Furman has won the last three meetings, including a 76-74 win at the Curb Event Center in November 2024. The Bruins get the home floor this time, and both teams come in well rested. Belmont will have had 12 days off and Furman 10. Bradds's defense held Southern Indiana to 14 first-half points, but a far better offense comes to Nashville at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.