UC Davis vs Sacramento State prediction: Marcus Wilson crosses the Causeway to face the Aggies he beat
A year after his late jumper beat Sacramento State, Wilson wears Hornet colors as two rebuilt rosters that both live at the free-throw line meet again.
- Expect a quick, foul-heavy game in Sacramento, with whistles and turnovers shaping it more than jump shots.
- Sacramento State's foul-drawing attack against a UC Davis defense that sent North Alabama to the line constantly in its opener.
- No spread or total is posted yet. UC Davis' opener went over a closing total of 148.5.
Wilson switches sides
Marcus Wilson's late 15-footer sealed UC Davis' 77-73 win over Sacramento State last November. Now he wears Hornet colors for the 124th Causeway Classic, a rivalry that dates to 1948.
Wilson started all 33 games for the Aggies last season and averaged 12.4 points. In Sacramento State's opener he started and scored 13 with a usage rate of 30.4%, the highest among the Hornets' regulars. That means he finished more possessions than anyone on the floor for coach Mike Bibby, now in his second year.
History leans toward the home side. The Hornets lead the series 73-50 and are 41-17 at home, though UC Davis has won the last two meetings. Both programs arrive in new leagues, UC Davis in its first Mountain West season and Sacramento State in the Big West.
A trip to the line
The clearest edge in this game sits at the free-throw line. Sacramento State's free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) was 86.3% against Jessup, 3rd in Division I. Jessup is not a Division I team, so read that as a style signal rather than a measurement.
The style held last season too, when the Hornets ranked 48th in free throw rate. UC Davis has struggled to defend without fouling. North Alabama posted a 57.1% free throw rate against the Aggies, 329th nationally, and last season's Aggies ranked 310th in the same stat.
UC Davis draws fouls as well, 51st in free throw rate in its opener. If this game is close late, shooters matter. Larry Hughes II made 86% of his free throws at Cal State Northridge last season, and Connor Sevilla hit 90.3% for the Aggies.
Pace and loose balls
Both teams like to run. Sacramento State averaged 83.5 possessions per 40 minutes against Jessup, 13th nationally, and ranked 12th in pace last season. UC Davis ranked 32nd last season.
The Aggies' answer is pressure. They forced turnovers on 25.3% of North Alabama possessions, 69th nationally, and last season ranked 22nd in forced turnover rate. Brayden Fagbemi led that effort with four steals and five assists in the opener.
That matters because the Hornets were careless with the ball against Jessup, turning it over on 21.4% of possessions, 276th in Division I. Last season's Sacramento State team protected the ball far better, but that roster is mostly gone.
Two rebuilt rosters
Last season's numbers are a weak guide here. Sacramento State returns only 33.0% of last season's minutes, and UC Davis returns 52.6%. For what they are worth, last season's final adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked UC Davis 170th and Sacramento State 268th.
The new Hornets run through Hughes, who made 101 threes at Cal State Northridge last season at 39.5%. He scored a game-high 24 against Jessup, with 18 in the first half.
UC Davis opened with a jolt. The Aggies lost 79-75 at home to North Alabama as 9.5-point favorites, and a Caden Harris three put North Alabama ahead for good. North Alabama ranked 342nd in last season's adjusted net efficiency. Jalen Stokes scored a career-high 18, but Sevilla went 0-for-6 from three after shooting 40.2% from deep last season. San Francisco transfer Veniamin Abosi added 10 points and six rebounds off the bench in his debut.
Both teams play again before this game: UC Davis was set to host Menlo on Nov. 4, and Sacramento State visits Santa Clara on Saturday.
Key players
- Jalen Stokes (UC Davis): Scored a career-high 18 points with six rebounds in the opener against North Alabama.
- Connor Sevilla (UC Davis): Went 0-for-6 from three in the opener after shooting 40.2% from deep last season.
- Brayden Fagbemi (UC Davis): Had four steals and five assists in the opener, keying the Aggies' pressure defense.
- Veniamin Abosi (UC Davis): The San Francisco transfer posted 10 points and six rebounds in 22 minutes in his debut.
- Larry Hughes II (Sacramento State): The Cal State Northridge transfer scored a game-high 24 points against Jessup.
- Marcus Wilson (Sacramento State): Scored 13 points with a 30.4% usage rate in his first game after leaving UC Davis.
- Mikey Williams (Sacramento State): Grabbed 11 rebounds with five assists in the opener after averaging 17.1 points last season.
- Osiris Grady (Sacramento State): The UC Riverside transfer had 12 points and eight rebounds in 23 minutes against Jessup.
Numbers that matter
| Sac State free throw rate | 86.3% | Ranked 3rd in Division I in the opener, though it came against a non-Division I opponent. |
|---|---|---|
| UC Davis opponent free throw rate | 57.1% | Ranked 329th nationally, continuing a foul problem from last season. |
| Sac State pace | 83.5 | Possessions per 40 minutes in the opener, 13th in Division I. |
| UC Davis forced turnover rate | 25.3% | Ranked 69th in the opener after a 22nd-place finish last season. |
| Sac State returning minutes | 33.0% | Little of last season's 10-21 roster remains, so its old team numbers say little. |
UC Davis vs Sacramento State: quick answers
When is UC Davis vs Sacramento State?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.