New Mexico vs Santa Clara prediction: Jake Hall's Lobos test Santa Clara's passing machine at the Leavey Center
Two rebuilt preseason conference favorites meet again after a 27-point New Mexico rout, and this time the Broncos have the home floor and the head start.
- Expect a fast, three-heavy game between rebuilt favorites, with Santa Clara's ball movement and home floor pushing back against New Mexico's shooters.
- Jake Hall against Santa Clara's perimeter defense: he scored 30 in the opener and made 43.8% of his threes last season.
- Both teams have covered every spread so far and every game has gone over; Santa Clara's Milwaukee win closed at a 162.5 total.
Two favorites, both rebuilt
Neither league has seen this in a while. New Mexico was picked to win the Mountain West for the first time since 2013-14, and Santa Clara was voted the WCC favorite for the first time since 1995-96. Saturday night is the back half of a home-and-home the Lobos owned last season, 98-71 in The Pit, and it is their first trip to the Leavey Center.
Last season's final adjusted ratings (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had the programs nearly level: Santa Clara 40th nationally, New Mexico 43rd. Those numbers describe different teams. The Lobos return only 32.5% of last season's minutes and Santa Clara 40.1%, so last year's profiles are a loose guide. The Broncos have more film on this group: two home wins over Towson and Milwaukee, against one New Mexico game, a 100-60 rout of Utah Tech. Both teams arrive well rested.
Hall and the arc
New Mexico's offense runs through Jake Hall. He used 43.5% of the Lobos' possessions in the opener and scored 30 points, even on a cold night from deep. He made 43.8% of his threes last season, so that cold night looks like the outlier. Uriah Tenette, the expected primary point guard, gives the Lobos a second preseason all-league scorer, and William & Mary transfer Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi supplied the scoring balance Eric Olen needed.
Santa Clara answers with ball movement. The Broncos assisted on 80.6% of their made baskets through two games, fifth in the country, and threes make up 47.0% of their shots. Kansas State transfer David Castillo is averaging 13.5 points, and Brad Longcor III leads the Broncos at 14.5.
That sets up the central tension. Last season New Mexico's defense allowed one of the highest three-point attempt rates in the country, 8th. It still held opponents to 30.2% from deep, 18th nationally. Whether a mostly new Lobo roster can win that bet against a team that passes this well may decide the game.
Second chances and the line
Santa Clara's soft spot is defensive rebounding. The Broncos have grabbed 63.2% of opponents' misses, 283rd in Division I, and they were in the bottom tier last season too. Chris Tadjo, averaging 8.5 rebounds, is their main interior presence.
New Mexico may be short-handed up front to exploit it. Its leading rebounder from last season, Tomislav Buljan, is now at Maryland. Graduate transfer forward Rytis Petraitis has missed three straight games, including the opener, with an ankle sprain. In the latest update Olen said the sprain still isn't considered serious but wouldn't commit to a return for the Lobos' next game, against Northern Arizona, so his status for this one is unsettled.
Free throws cut both ways. Santa Clara has made 83.3% of its attempts, but its defense has put opponents on the line often, with an opponent free throw rate that ranks 238th.
Pace and the overs
Both teams have played fast early: New Mexico at 76 possessions per 40 minutes, Santa Clara at 75.8. Every game either team has played has gone over the closing total, and both have covered every spread. The Broncos also like to land the first punch. They opened the Milwaukee game with a 14-0 run and never trailed.
Tip is 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Key players
- Jake Hall (New Mexico): Scored 30 points on a 43.5% usage rate in the opener after shooting 43.8% from three last season.
- Uriah Tenette (New Mexico): Scored 19 points with a 66.7% effective field goal percentage against Utah Tech.
- Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi (New Mexico): Made 4 of 8 threes for 17 points in his Lobo debut.
- David Castillo (Santa Clara): Averaging 13.5 points off the bench and has hit 6 of 15 threes.
- Brad Longcor III (Santa Clara): Leads the Broncos at 14.5 points a game and has made 5 of 10 threes.
- Jake Ensminger (Santa Clara): Shot 39.8% from three last season and has an offensive rating of 175.5 so far.
- Sash Gavalyugov (Santa Clara): Running the offense at 5.0 assists a game.
Numbers that matter
| Santa Clara assist rate | 80.6% | Fifth nationally, the engine of a pass-heavy offense that tests New Mexico's rebuilt defense. |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico opponent 3-point % (last season) | 30.2% | Ranked 18th last season despite allowing heavy three-point volume, a gamble that new personnel must repeat. |
| Santa Clara defensive rebound % | 63.2% | Ranks 283rd, leaving second chances on the table if New Mexico can crash. |
| New Mexico returning minutes | 32.5% | Little of last season's 26-11 team returns, so last year's numbers are a weak guide. |
New Mexico vs Santa Clara: quick answers
When is New Mexico vs Santa Clara?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.