Cincinnati vs Dayton prediction: Cincinnati's all-new roster tests Dayton's 7-foot-1 L'Etang at UD Arena

A rebuild under Calhoun

Cincinnati is the most remade team in this game, and it isn't close. Players on the current roster logged 0.2% of the Bearcats' minutes last season. Grant Darbyshire is the lone returner among 14 newcomers, assembled by first-year coach Jerrod Calhoun after he left Utah State. That makes last season's numbers, including an adjusted defense that ranked 14th nationally (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), a description of a team that no longer exists.

The new core is a pile of high-usage transfer guards. MJ Collins Jr. came from Utah State after averaging 17.5 points last season. Tyler Tejada scored 17.7 a game at Towson and was the best player in the opener, hitting 3 of 5 from deep against American. The pieces haven't meshed yet. Tylen Riley, the Tulsa transfer, went 3 of 10 from the field, and the Bearcats' effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 47.8 ranked 248th after one night.

Hands in every passing lane

What Cincinnati already does well is take the ball away. The Bearcats posted a steal rate of 20.8%, 13th in Division I, and forced turnovers on 25.0% of American's possessions. Collins and reserve forward David Iweze each had four steals. Javontae Campbell, the reigning MAC Defensive Player of the Year, averaged 3.0 steals last season at Bowling Green.

Dayton is a test of whether that travels. The Flyers turned it over on 17.4% of their possessions in the opener, a middling 177th, and their lead guards are new too: Zaide Lowery came from Marquette, Landen Joseph from Marshall. The home crowd at UD Arena helps Dayton settle; live-ball turnovers are how Cincinnati can flip that.

Dayton lives on the glass

Anthony Grant's 10th Dayton team opened by rebounding 51.4% of its own misses, 20th in the country. The engine is the frontcourt. Amaël L'Etang, the 7-foot-1 preseason all-conference pick, posted 20 points and 11 rebounds against NJIT. Aiden Derkack added 21 and 11 on 6-of-9 shooting.

Cincinnati grabbed 78.0% of American's misses, so this is a strength against a strength. The swing piece is Jayden Hastings, the Bearcats' forward-center who left the opener in its first minutes with a shoulder injury. Without him, Calhoun's guard-heavy rotation has to keep L'Etang and Derkack off the offensive boards.

The Flyers also made it count at the line, hitting 85.7% of their free throws, 19th nationally. L'Etang's one blemish: he went 0 for 5 from three.

Who might be missing

Hastings is questionable with the shoulder injury, and Calhoun said he hoped Hastings would be ready, but his status was unclear as of early this week. Cincinnati hosted Green Bay on Nov. 5, which should offer the next clue.

Dayton's question is Jalen Haynes, a transfer from Cincinnati. He was not in uniform for the opener after missing all three exhibitions while recovering from offseason knee surgery, though he had returned to practice the week before. Dayton hasn't said when he will debut, and a first appearance against his old program would add size to an already big front line.

Series, setting and stakes

Cincinnati has won the last two meetings, 66-59 on a neutral floor in December 2024 and 74-62 at home last November. This one moves to Dayton, where the Flyers were picked third in the Atlantic 10. The Bearcats were picked tied for eighth in the Big 12.

Neither opener said much about quality. American ranks 246th in last season's adjusted net rating and NJIT ranks 338th. Dayton's 47-23 halftime lead was the more convincing start. Cincinnati led just 35-33 at the break after losing Hastings, then held American to a 34.3% effective field goal mark for the night.