Northwestern State vs Little Rock prediction: Jah'Likai King and Little Rock's transfer rebuild get their home debut

Ford's new guards take over

Little Rock fired Darrell Walker in March, hired Travis Ford and watched a wave of players enter the transfer portal. What's left is almost entirely new: players on this roster accounted for just 2.2% of last season's minutes. Northwestern State isn't far behind, with 11 newcomers on a 14-man roster. Saturday at the Jack Stephens Center, the first Little Rock home game of the Ford era, is a look at two new teams that have each played once.

The Trojans' opener at VCU offered a real clue. Jah'Likai King, a transfer from UMBC, scored 27 points on 9-of-13 shooting and made three of his four threes in a 72-82 loss to a team ranked 47th in adjusted net efficiency. Aaron Clark, who averaged 15.2 points at Pepperdine last season, added 11. Bradyn Hubbard, a 16.2-point scorer at Abilene Christian last season, went 1-of-4 and should have more in him.

Last season's numbers say little here. Little Rock finished 12-20 last season, and its last-season adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked 310th, but almost none of those players remain.

A whistle problem in Little Rock

The sharpest number in the Trojans' profile is a bad one. VCU shot free throws at a rate of 92.3% of its field goal attempts, the worst figure among 357 Division I teams after opening week. One game exaggerates it, but foul trouble against a new team is worth watching.

Northwestern State goes to the line often. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per shot) was 40.3% last season, 52nd nationally, and it opened at Baylor at 40.7%. The catch is the Demons' accuracy: they hit 66.7% at Baylor, and lead scorer Kai Simpson went 57.1%. Little Rock made 81.0% at VCU, 39th in the country, so the Trojans can turn their own trips into points more reliably.

Second chances favor the Trojans

Little Rock grabbed 38.2% of its own misses at VCU, 112th nationally, and Papa Amadou Kante pulled down seven rebounds. Northwestern State's defensive rebounding at Baylor ranked 302nd, collecting only 60.5% of opponents' misses.

The Trojans' own glass is just as soft, ranking 311th on the defensive boards, but the Demons rarely crash. They rebounded 22.0% of their misses at Baylor, 319th. Unless that changes, the extra possessions should go to Little Rock.

Where's the Demons' shooting?

Northwestern State made 21.7% of its threes at Baylor, 318th nationally, and fell behind 32-50 at halftime. Its best returning shooter may not be available. Senior guard Izzy Miles, whom the program called its best player through summer and fall, missed the exhibition win at North Texas, and no update on his status had surfaced as of early November. Miles made 39.7% of his threes last season.

Without him, the offense runs through transfers. Simpson took a 34% usage rate at Baylor and scored 17, while Nathan Ojukwu added 13 and Isaiah Vick 12. Tempo is the other open question: Rick Cabrera's team played at the 73rd-fastest pace at Baylor, but last season it ranked 357th of 365 in possessions per game.

The market so far

No spread or total has been posted. Both teams beat the number in their openers as heavy road underdogs: Northwestern State lost 65-87 to Baylor but covered as a 32-point underdog, and Little Rock covered at +19 at VCU. Baylor pushed the Demons' game over a closing total of 151.5, while the Trojans' game stayed under 155.25. Both sides come in with 12 days of rest.