UL Monroe vs Grand Canyon prediction: Ryan Cross's rebuilt UL Monroe tests Grand Canyon's veteran defense

A roster built from scratch

Ryan Cross inherited a UL Monroe team that went 4-28 last season, and he kept almost none of it. Players on this roster account for 0.1% of last season's minutes, so last year's team numbers describe a group that no longer exists. Cross came from UAB, where he led the Blazers to two NCAA Tournament appearances, and two UAB guards followed him to Monroe.

Dayjaun Anderson has been the headline. He is scoring 21.5 points per game on a 29.5% usage rate, the share of team possessions he ends while on the floor. That is a different player from the one who shot 24.1% from three at UAB last season; he has made 7 of 20 so far. Quaran McPherson, the other UAB import, has hit 5 of 8 from deep. The caution is the schedule: a home loss to Central Michigan and a 99-55 rout of Champion Christian are all the evidence there is.

Grand Canyon's new pieces, old core

Bryce Drew is in his seventh season and added 11 newcomers to a group that returns 47.2% of last season's minutes. The returning core includes center Efe Demirel and guards Jaden Henley and Caleb Shaw. Henley scored a game-high 22 in the 103-79 opener over Texas Southern, most of it after halftime.

St. John's transfer Dylan Darling runs the point, and NC State transfer Tre Holloman shot 40.2% from three last season. The open question is Makaih Williams, a preseason All-Mountain West pick who missed the opener. As of Nov. 2, Drew said Williams should return to practice that week and build toward a possible return against Bethune-Cookman. We found no update on his status after Nov. 2.

The defense is the standard to check. Last season Grand Canyon posted an adjusted defensive efficiency of 98.7 points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents, which ranked 28th of 365. Texas Southern still scored 79 in the opener.

Steals and second chances

ULM's best path to an upset is extra possessions. The Warhawks have a 17.7% steal rate, 40th nationally, and Phillip Tillman is the menace in the passing lanes. Grand Canyon coughed it up on 19.2% of its possessions in the opener, and ball security was a weakness last season too, when the Lopes ranked 279th in turnover rate.

The glass is the other lever. ULM has grabbed 46.8% of its own misses, 44th in the country. Grand Canyon's defensive rebounding was a strength last season at 74.7%, 16th nationally, and the Lopes are the bigger team by minutes-weighted height.

The market and the trip

Our feed has no spread or total yet for this first-ever meeting. Both teams failed to cover their only lined game. Grand Canyon won by 24 as a 28.5-point favorite, and ULM lost as a 2.5-point underdog to Central Michigan. Both of those games went over.

Watch the travel. ULM's schedule release lists a game at Arizona State on Nov. 13, the night before this one, while its schedule graphic puts Arizona State on Nov. 14. If the earlier date holds, the Warhawks arrive in Phoenix on a back-to-back.