Dillard vs Arkansas State prediction: Arkansas State's rebuilt roster gets a tune-up against Dillard
With almost nothing returning from last season, the Red Wolves use a home date with Dillard to keep sorting out who they are between bigger tests.
- Arkansas State should control this one at home; the real question is which newcomers keep earning minutes and touches.
- Watch Tameron Ferguson, the Division II transfer who scored 20 and hit the winning free throw against Toledo.
- No line is posted yet; in the opener, Arkansas State failed to cover as a 3.5-point favorite and the game stayed under 165.5.
A roster built from scratch
Ryan Pannone's second Arkansas State team barely resembles his first. Players on this season's roster accounted for just 5.5% of last season's minutes, and the squad carries 12 newcomers. That makes last season's 20-12 record a weak guide.
The opener showed what that looks like in practice. The Red Wolves edged Toledo 71-70 on a free throw by Tameron Ferguson with four seconds left. Ferguson, a transfer from Division II Augustana, led everyone with 20 points. Royal Blue Smith, the lone notable returner, played only 13.1 minutes a game last season. Dillard, a visitor from outside Division I, gives this group another night to build continuity before conference play.
Shooting threes, missing free throws
Arkansas State's identity in that first game leaned hard on the perimeter. More than half its shots came from deep, a 3-point attempt rate (threes as a share of all shots) of 52.9%, 36th-highest in the country. The finish was shaky: the Red Wolves made 43.5% of their free throws, which ranked 347th of 357.
One game is a thin sample, but that was the problem area. Layne Taylor shot 78.9% at the line at Murray State last season, so better numbers should come.
Health and schedule
Pannone said in early October that injuries had limited practice to short possession drills instead of continuous play, without naming players. No absence was reported in the Toledo win coverage. Dillard has no reported injury news.
The Red Wolves visit No. 20 Alabama on Nov. 6 and host UT Martin on Nov. 10 before this game. The 8 p.m. ET tip is listed, though some schedule listings differ.
Key players
- Tameron Ferguson (Arkansas State): Scored 20 points on 80% shooting in the opener, including 3 of 5 from three.
- Jordan Pyke (Arkansas State): The Incarnate Word transfer averaged 12.6 points last season and added 11 points and 9 rebounds against Toledo.
- Layne Taylor (Arkansas State): Shot 34.5% from three at Murray State last season and opened with 13 points and 4 assists.
- Royal Blue Smith (Arkansas State): Carried a 24.9% usage rate in the opener but made just 16.7% of his shots.
Numbers that matter
| Returning minutes | 5.5% | Nearly the entire rotation is new, so last season's team profile says little. |
|---|---|---|
| Free throw % | 43.5% | Ranked 347th of 357 after one game and nearly cost Arkansas State the opener. |
| 3-point attempt rate | 52.9% | Ranked 36th nationally, a perimeter-heavy start for the new group. |
| Opener margin | 71-70 | Arkansas State needed a late free throw to beat Toledo at home. |
Dillard vs Arkansas State: quick answers
When is Dillard vs Arkansas State?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.