Louisiana Tech vs Nicholls prediction: Braylon Wenger's 28-point debut tests a rebuilt Nicholls in Thibodaux
Both programs kept almost nothing from last season, so this is a first real look at a Louisiana Tech team built around a new scorer and a Nicholls team whose only result came against a non-Division I opponent.
- Expect a feeling-out game between two new rosters, with Louisiana Tech's proven opener against Kent State weighing more than Nicholls' 54-point rout of North American.
- Braylon Wenger against the Nicholls perimeter: he scored 28 on 4-of-8 threes, and Nicholls forced turnovers at a top-15 rate last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet; Louisiana Tech covered as a 5.25-point underdog and went over 144.5 in its opener.
Two rosters starting from scratch
The most useful number about either team is how little of last season remains. Louisiana Tech returns 10.0% of last season's minutes, and Nicholls returns the same share. Talvin Hester, in his fifth season, is coaching what amounts to a brand-new team in Louisiana Tech's first year back in the Sun Belt after thirteen years in Conference USA. Jaylen Fenner is the lone second-year holdover.
That makes last season's profiles a weak guide. Louisiana Tech went 20-14 behind a defense that ranked 22nd nationally in efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions), but the players who built it are gone, with AJ Bates now at Utah State and DJ Dudley at New Mexico State. Nicholls finished 14-19. What matters now is one game of evidence for each side, and those two games were not equal.
Wenger gives Tech a headliner
Louisiana Tech's 85-75 win over Kent State was a genuine test. Kent State ranked 164th in last season's adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), and the Bulldogs led from the opening possession before Kent State trimmed a 19-point second-half deficit in the closing minutes.
Wenger carried the night. He scored 28 points in 36 minutes with an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 83.3, and he did it on a 26.8% usage rate. Jay Tyler ran the offense with 7 assists, and Ethan Blackmon gave the bench a 13-point, 10-rebound jolt in 21 minutes. Fenner was the inefficient piece, shooting 58.3% at the line. If Nicholls can keep the ball out of Wenger's hands, Louisiana Tech has not yet shown who else scores in bunches.
Nicholls brings pressure and pace
Nicholls opened with a 110-56 win over North American, a non-Division I opponent, so its gaudy rates mean little on their own. The more durable signal is what this program did last season: it ranked 15th in forced turnover rate and 13th in steal rate. Whether Tevon Saddler's new roster keeps that identity is the open question, but the early sign points that way.
That matters against a Louisiana Tech team that forced turnovers at the 348th-ranked rate against Kent State while protecting the ball well itself. The tempo gap is real, too. Louisiana Tech played at 67 possessions per 40 minutes in its opener, 293rd nationally, and last season sat 301st in pace. Nicholls wants to run. A slow, half-court game favors the visitors' new scorer; a scramble favors the home team's guards.
Free throws and the glass
Louisiana Tech lived at the line against Kent State, posting a free throw rate (free throw attempts per shot attempt) of 55.6%, 38th nationally. Drawing fouls is a steady way to cool a pressing team and keep a road game in a half-court rhythm.
The weak spot was the defensive glass. The Bulldogs grabbed only 56.6% of Kent State's misses, 326th in the country. Nicholls ranked 294th in offensive rebound rate in its opener, so the home side may not be built to punish that, but second chances are where an otherwise efficient Louisiana Tech night could leak points.
Key players
- Braylon Wenger (Louisiana Tech): Scored 28 points with 4-of-8 three-point shooting in the opener against Kent State.
- Jay Tyler (Louisiana Tech): Dished 7 assists and made 3 of 6 threes against Kent State.
- Ethan Blackmon (Louisiana Tech): Posted 13 points and 10 rebounds in 21 minutes off the bench.
- Jaylen Fenner (Louisiana Tech): Had 13 points and 8 rebounds in the opener after playing 21.4 minutes per game last season.
- Sheridan Sharp (Nicholls): Scored 14 points with 6 assists in 19 minutes against North American.
- Jordan Matthews (Nicholls): Made 4 of 9 threes for 12 points in the opener.
- AJ Dent (Nicholls): Shot 4 of 5 from the field for 11 points against North American.
- Christian Winborne (Nicholls): Made 54 threes at a 34.8% clip last season, the most experience on the roster.
Numbers that matter
| Returning minutes, both teams | 10.0% | Neither team carries much of last season's rotation, so last season's team stats say little. |
|---|---|---|
| Nicholls forced turnover rank, last season | 15th | The pressure identity Louisiana Tech's new backcourt may have to handle. |
| Wenger effective FG% | 83.3 | His efficiency drove Louisiana Tech's opener against a Division I opponent. |
| Louisiana Tech pace rank | 293rd | The Bulldogs played slow in the opener, setting up a tempo clash with Nicholls. |
| Louisiana Tech defensive rebound % | 56.6% | Ranked 326th in the opener, the clearest weakness Nicholls can target. |
Louisiana Tech vs Nicholls: quick answers
When is Louisiana Tech vs Nicholls?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.