West Georgia vs Charleston Southern prediction: Charleston Southern's tempo tests a West Georgia offense still finding its shot

Two rosters starting over

Little of what either team showed last season walked back through the door. West Georgia returns 18.9% of last season's minutes, and Charleston Southern returns 19.3%. Both programs went 15-17 last season, and neither group that produced those records is mostly intact.

The departures tell the story. West Georgia lost Shelton Williams-Dryden, who scored 20.7 points per game last season. Charleston Southern lost A'lahn Sumler, a 19.0-point scorer now at Pittsburgh, plus Brycen Blaine to East Carolina.

Last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had Charleston Southern at -5.6, 228th nationally, and West Georgia at -12.9, 303rd. With this much turnover, treat that gap as a loose guide at best. Each team has one game this season, both road losses on Nov. 2.

West Georgia's shot problem

The Wolves had a lead at DePaul and lost it because the shots stopped falling. They led by 11 in the first half, then DePaul turned a 38-37 deficit into a 54-39 lead with 9:42 left. West Georgia shot 33.3% from the field and lost 75-58.

The efficiency numbers are worse. West Georgia's effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, was 39.9%, 321st in Division I. Its two-point shooting sat at 34.1%, 336th. Juaquin Dixon carried a 32.6% usage rate, the share of possessions he finished, and made one of eight threes.

Charleston Southern's defense offers a softer landing than DePaul's did. South Florida posted a 55.9% effective field goal percentage against the Buccaneers and hit 45.0% of its threes in a 98-71 rout. South Florida carried a much stronger adjusted rating (42nd) than West Georgia, so that result overstates how loose the Buccaneers will be. Still, a Wolves team that misses easy looks may get a few more of them here.

Fouls and the free-throw line

West Georgia had three players foul out at DePaul. Its opponent free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, was 53.6%, 319th nationally. That is the kind of number that turns a close game into a parade to the line.

The Wolves got almost nothing back at the other end. Their own free throw rate was 10.1%, 352nd, and they made 42.9% of their free throws. Charleston Southern drew fouls at a 31.8% rate in its opener. If the Wolves foul at that pace again, the Buccaneers have a steady source of points even on nights their jumpers miss.

Tempo and the glass

Charleston Southern wants to run. It played at 78.5 possessions per 40 minutes in its opener, 49th nationally, and last season's team ranked 6th in pace. Nimley's program has made speed its identity, and a new roster hasn't changed that so far.

West Georgia's best counter is ending possessions. The Wolves grabbed 78.4% of available defensive rebounds at DePaul, 76th nationally, while Charleston Southern rebounded 32.6% of its own misses. Kenneth Chime pulled down nine rebounds in 21 minutes, and West Georgia's lineup averages more height than the Buccaneers'.

The Buccaneers won't take the ball away often. Their forced turnover rate was 10.1%, 350th, so West Georgia's guards should get clean possessions. Whether Chas Lewless and Justin Redmond turn those possessions into made baskets is the question the Wolves haven't answered yet.

What to watch

• Olalere at the rim. He blocked four shots against South Florida, and West Georgia's two-point shooting is its weakest area.
• Foul trouble for the Wolves. Another night with multiple players fouling out would test a thin rotation.
• Charleston Southern's freshmen. DJ Hubbard scored 11 off the bench in his debut.
• The Loyola Chicago result. West Georgia has a game at Loyola Chicago on its schedule before this one, which will add a second data point.