Washington vs Utah prediction: Washington's trips to the foul line test a Utah team that can't shoot them
Two rebuilt rosters with one game each behind them, and the clearest early split is at the free-throw line, where the Huskies live and the Utes struggle.
- Expect a grinding game in Salt Lake City that Washington tries to drag to the foul line and Utah tries to settle on the defensive glass.
- Washington's three-heavy, foul-drawing forwards Nikola Dzepina and LeJuan Watts against a Utah frontcourt thinned by Fynn Schott's leg surgery.
- No line is posted yet. Both teams failed to cover as big favorites in their openers, and Utah shot 47.4% at the line.
A night decided at the line
Utah won two Big 12 games all of last season, going 2-16 in the league, and was voted to finish last again. Washington arrives as the program with more continuity, which still isn't much: the Huskies return 20.9% of last season's minutes, and Utah returns just 8.4%. With so little shared history, the best evidence is what each team showed in its opener, and the loudest signal came from the free-throw line.
Washington beat Colgate by living there. Its free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) was 66.7%, 12th in Division I, and it made 83.3% of those attempts, 27th. That is a sharp turn from last season, when the Huskies ranked 303rd in getting to the line.
Utah went the other way. The Utes made 47.4% of their free throws against Long Beach State, 343rd of 357, and nearly let a home game slip in a 66-63 win. If this one is close late, that gap carries real weight.
Two rosters built from scratch
Washington lost Hannes Steinbach, who averaged 18.5 points last season, and sent Zoom Diallo and Franck Kepnang to Kentucky. The new scoring came fast. Nikola Dzepina scored 27 against Colgate and used more than a third of the team's possessions, and Texas Tech transfer LeJuan Watts added 22. Ryan Beasley, who was dealing with a concussion in late October, played 36 minutes in the opener.
Utah's rebuild runs through Trey Campbell, the fifth-year transfer from Northern Iowa, who posted 20 points and 8 assists in his debut. Utah Valley transfer Jackson Holcombe added rim protection from the backcourt.
Size is the worry for the Utes. Coach Alex Jensen said the frontcourt is thin until Babacar Faye and Schott are back. Faye, who missed all of last season, was cleared as of Nov. 2. Schott will miss the start of the season after right-leg surgery, with no return date. Washington has its own big-man question: 7-footer Mady Traore was managing knee swelling that needs periodic draining as of Oct. 24, with no update since.
Threes against a soft perimeter
Sprinkle's new group shoots from deep. Washington took 51.9% of its shots from three in the opener, 43rd nationally, after ranking near the bottom in three-point volume last season.
That aims straight at Utah's weak spot. Long Beach State hit 40.0% from three against the Utes, 298th, and built a 28-40 halftime lead before Utah clawed back. Utah was stout inside the arc, so Washington's wings will decide how much of the perimeter it actually tests.
Utah's turnovers and the glass
Utah's other leak is ball security. Its turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) was 23.1%, 297th in the country, which helps explain an offense that scored 66 points at home against a team rated outside the top 240.
Washington may not punish it. The Huskies forced turnovers at a rate that ranked 282nd. Utah's strength is finishing defensive possessions: it grabbed 83.8% of available defensive rebounds, 27th nationally, an edge that matters against a Washington team that missed plenty of threes.
What the market has to work with
No spread or total for this game is in our feed yet. The openers offer a hint. Both teams were heavy home favorites and both failed to cover. Washington's game flew over a 154.5 total, while Utah's stayed under 146.75 at one of the slowest tempos in the country.
Utah also has Towson tonight and Weber State on Nov. 10 before tipoff, so its profile will fill in. The 2023-24 Pac-12 meetings split, but nearly every player from those games is gone.
- Washington's free-throw attempts by halftime
- Utah's three-point defense against the Huskies' volume
- Whether Faye gives Utah frontcourt minutes
Key players
- Nikola Dzepina (Washington): Scored 27 points on a 35.2% usage rate in the opener against Colgate.
- LeJuan Watts (Washington): Posted 22 points with a 175 offensive rating in his Washington debut.
- Wesley Yates III (Washington): Averaged 12.7 points last season and hit 3 of 6 threes off the bench in the opener after blood-clot treatment.
- Ryan Beasley (Washington): Played 36 minutes with 4 assists in the opener after a late-October concussion.
- Trey Campbell (Utah): Opened with 20 points, 8 assists and 4 steals against Long Beach State.
- Jackson Holcombe (Utah): Added 14 points, 8 rebounds and 3 blocks in the opener.
- Malek Gomma (Utah): Pulled down 11 rebounds but shot 16.7% from the line in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| Washington free throw rate | 66.7% | Ranked 12th in Division I in the opener, a sharp break from last season's 303rd. |
|---|---|---|
| Utah free throw percentage | 47.4% | Ranked 343rd of 357 and nearly cost Utah its opener. |
| Utah opponent 3-point % | 40.0% | Ranked 298th, facing a Washington team that took over half its shots from deep. |
| Utah turnover rate | 23.1% | Ranked 297th, though Washington's defense rarely forces turnovers. |
| Utah returning minutes | 8.4% | Makes last season's 10-22 team a poor guide to this roster. |
Washington vs Utah: quick answers
When is Washington vs Utah?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.