Utah Tech vs California prediction: Cal's transfer shooters test Utah Tech's rebuilt perimeter defense

Two transfers, one hot start

Cal's roster was rebuilt again, with only 20.5% of last season's minutes back in Berkeley. The newcomers wasted no time. The Bears are hitting 48.3% of their threes, 22nd in Division I, and two guards are doing most of the damage.

Nojus Indrusaitis, a Pitt transfer, has made 9 of 15 threes through two games. He scored 30 against Radford on Nov. 4, going 6-for-10 from deep. Michael Cooper, from Wright State, has been just as hot off the bench at 10 of 16. Both arrived as volume shooters, not specialists: Cooper took 135 threes at Wright State last season.

Utah Tech's opponents are shooting 32.6% from three this season, but one of its two games came against Grace University, which is not a Division I program. Last season's Trailblazers ranked 21st nationally in opponent three-point percentage, yet with only 21.9% of last season's minutes returning, that defense is largely gone.

Utah Tech's threes are not falling

The Trailblazers fire away. Their 3-point attempt rate of 48.0% ranks 77th, a style that leans heavily on the arc. The makes have not followed: they are shooting 28.3% from three, 250th nationally.

Freshman Christian Gibson is the exception and the engine. He is averaging 20 points on a 29.9% usage rate, scored 23 in the opener at New Mexico and led the Grace rout with 17. Aris Rodriguez is the warning sign, 0-for-12 from three so far.

The steadier option inside is Ethan Potter, the lone major returner. He averaged 16.9 points last season with a 60.3% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times), and he is pulling 7.5 rebounds a game now. Against a Cal defense allowing 55.9% on twos, 249th, feeding Potter may be the better plan than chasing threes.

Where Utah Tech can steal possessions

Ball security is the Trailblazers' best early trait. They turn it over on 11.9% of possessions, 41st nationally, and Cal does not force much, ranking 191st in forced turnover rate. Guard Mark Brown Jr. adds disruption with 3.0 steals a game.

Neither team has crashed the glass. Cal's offensive rebound rate sits 287th, Utah Tech's 282nd, so second chances may be scarce. With both teams playing fast (Cal's pace ranks 67th), the game could have plenty of possessions, and Cal has averaged 55.5 first-half points, 23rd in the country.

Schedule and the Cal bench

Neither record says much yet. Utah Tech lost 100-60 at New Mexico, a team that ranked 43rd in adjusted net efficiency, then beat Grace. Cal beat non-Division I Adams State and then slipped past Radford 84-70. Last season's final adjusted ratings had Cal 73rd and Utah Tech 200th, a gap worth noting but a shaky guide given both rosters.

The road is long for the Trailblazers. Cal is the second stop of a four-game road stretch, after Tuesday's trip to Utah State, in their first season in the Big Sky. Cal has its own busy week, with No. 10 Houston at Lake Tahoe on Nov. 8 and USC at home on Nov. 11 before this one.

Two Cal items to track. Forward Lee Dort, the Bears' top returner, was out with an ankle sprain and still day-to-day as of Nov. 4, with no update since. Coach Mark Madsen missed the Radford game for a family emergency and was expected back the next day.