UT Rio Grande Valley vs UT Arlington prediction: UT Arlington's glass work tests UTRGV's rebuilt roster
Two teams that kept almost nobody from last season meet in Arlington, and the Mavericks' rebounding gives this game its clearest early identity.
- UT Arlington's size and rebounding should shape a game between two rosters that return almost none of last season's minutes.
- Niko Bundalo and the Mavericks' offensive glass against a UTRGV defense that let a lower-level opener keep too many misses alive.
- No spread or total has been posted yet. UT Arlington's 58-50 win last season, the only recent meeting, points to a defense-first range.
Two rosters built from scratch
Last season's numbers will mislead anyone who leans on them here. UTRGV returns 7.7% of last season's minutes, and UT Arlington brings back just 6.1%. The Mavericks carry 12 new players on a 14-man roster. UTRGV has also changed the man in charge: Brandon Chambers is in his first year, and the Vaqueros were picked fifth in the Southland.
What does carry over for UT Arlington is KT Turner. His teams defend. Last season the Mavericks ranked 12th of 365 in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions), and opponents shot 26.7% from three against them, the lowest rate in Division I. The players are new, but that system is the best guide to how Saturday looks. It also matches how last season's meeting played out, a 58-50 UT Arlington win in the Valley.
The Mavericks are also opening life in the United Athletic Conference after five years in the WAC, so this home date is part of building a new identity before league play.
The glass in Arlington
The opener against UNT Dallas showed what this new UT Arlington group wants to be. The Mavericks grabbed 64 rebounds, tied for the eighth-most in a game in program history, and rebounded 51.2% of their own misses, 24th nationally. That fits Turner's teams: last season's group ranked 31st in offensive rebound rate.
They are bigger, too. UT Arlington's minutes-weighted height is 78.2 inches against 76.9 for UTRGV. Niko Bundalo pulled down 12 boards and blocked three shots in the opener.
UTRGV's defensive rebound rate in its opener was 70.6%, 188th. Against a lower-level opponent that is a warning sign. If the Vaqueros can't finish possessions, Arlington's second chances become the margin.
Can UTRGV hold the ball?
The Vaqueros started their opener with a 17-0 run and rolled to an 81-51 win over Texas A&M-Kingsville, but they were careless. Their turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions) was 24.4%, 315th in the country. They also made just 42.9% of their free throws.
Here is the twist: UT Arlington barely pressured its first opponent. The Mavericks forced turnovers on 11.0% of possessions, 342nd. UT Arlington forced few turnovers in its opener, so UTRGV may get away with some loose handling. The bigger cost of those giveaways is fewer chances to answer Arlington's offensive rebounds.
Who carries each team
UTRGV is leaning on transfers. Jace Posey, who came from TCU, used 28.4% of possessions in the opener and filled the line with 12 points and seven rebounds. B.B. Knight, from Lamar, scored 14 but needed eight threes to make two. The sharpest shooter was Caden Bell off the bench, who hit three of his five threes for 14 points.
For UT Arlington, Noah Shelby scored a career-high 17 points and hit five of his 10 threes. Jerimiyah Smith added 13 points, 10 rebounds and six assists off the bench. Tycen McDaniels, who averaged 12.1 points last season at Alcorn State, scored only three in his debut.
What to watch
- Second chances: whether UTRGV's guards crash the defensive glass against Bundalo and Smith.
- Knight's shot selection: a high-volume shooter facing a program that took away the three last season.
- McDaniels' role: the most productive transfer scorer on Arlington's roster had a quiet debut.
- The free-throw line: UTRGV's shooting there in a game that could stay close.
Key players
- Jace Posey (UT Rio Grande Valley): Used 28.4% of possessions in the opener and posted 12 points and seven rebounds.
- B.B. Knight (UT Rio Grande Valley): Scored 14 in the opener but made two of eight threes.
- Caden Bell (UT Rio Grande Valley): Hit three of five threes for 14 points with a 68.8% effective field goal percentage.
- Devon Pryor (UT Rio Grande Valley): Started the opener and shot 28.6% from the field.
- Noah Shelby (UT Arlington): Scored a career-high 17 points in 35 minutes, making five of 10 threes.
- Niko Bundalo (UT Arlington): Had 13 points, 12 rebounds and three blocks in the opener.
- Jerimiyah Smith (UT Arlington): Posted 13 points, 10 rebounds and six assists off the bench.
- Tycen McDaniels (UT Arlington): Averaged 12.1 points last season at Alcorn State but scored three in his debut.
Numbers that matter
| UTA offensive rebound rate | 51.2% | Ranked 24th in the opener and fits a Turner program that ranked 31st last season. |
|---|---|---|
| UTRGV turnover rate | 24.4% | Ranked 315th in the opener, though UT Arlington forced few turnovers in its own. |
| UTA opponent 3-point % last season | 26.7% | The best mark in Division I, the clearest sign of the defense Turner brings back. |
| UTA returning minutes | 6.1% | With 12 new players, last season's team numbers are a weak guide beyond the coach's system. |
| Last meeting | 58-50 | UT Arlington won in the Valley last December in a low-scoring game. |
UT Rio Grande Valley vs UT Arlington: quick answers
When is UT Rio Grande Valley vs UT Arlington?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.