UNC Greensboro vs Cornell prediction: Cornell's rebuilt shooting gallery tests Jerod Haase's brand-new UNCG

Cornell keeps firing from deep

Last season Cornell lived behind the arc. Its 3-point attempt rate (the share of shots taken from three) was 52.6%, fifth-highest in Division I, and it made 39.3% of those, sixth-best. That team is mostly gone. Cooper Noard (18.2 points per game) left for Samford and Jake Fiegen (17.1) left for Villanova, part of a group of top three scorers who all departed.

The identity survived the opener anyway. Cornell shot 48.3% from three in an 86-85 win over Pepperdine on Nov. 2. Jacob Beccles scored 19 on 4-of-6 from deep and hit the go-ahead layup with 24 seconds left. Mateen Rafiq matched him at 4-of-6 for 17 points. If those two keep shooting at volume, Jon Jaques has found his replacements faster than anyone expected from a team picked fifth in the Ivy.

UNCG starts from zero

Jerod Haase, in his first season leading UNC Greensboro after stops at Stanford and UAB, inherited a near-total reset. Players on this roster account for just 2.1% of last season's UNCG minutes. The program lists 12 newcomers and two returners. Last season's numbers, including a defense that allowed opponents to shoot 37.2% from three (355th), describe players who have mostly left.

The only evidence on the new group is a 96-43 rout of Milligan on Nov. 3, an opponent with no Division I rating, so its gaudy defensive percentages say little. What it does show is who carries the load. Cameron Grant, a Stanford transfer who averaged 2.1 points there last season, posted 19 points, 9 rebounds and 3 blocks. Point guard Dionte Neal handed out 7 assists while hitting 7 of 8 shots, and Davidson transfer RJ Greer made 3 of 5 threes.

Where Cornell gives games away

Cornell nearly blew a 15-point lead against Pepperdine, and two numbers explain why. The Big Red turned it over on 21.6% of possessions, which ranks 281st. They grabbed only 57.9% of available defensive rebounds, 321st nationally. Hand an opponent extra possessions and a hot shooting night stops being a cushion.

That's UNCG's opening. Its new pieces have size to crash the glass, with Grant and reserve Brock Mishak combining for 17 rebounds in the opener. Both teams also average the same minutes-weighted height, so Cornell has no size edge to fall back on. Freshman Quinn Gibson, who pulled 8 rebounds and blocked a shot in the closing seconds against Pepperdine, is the Big Red's best answer inside.

Setting and the market

This is an 11 a.m. Saturday tip at Newman Arena, Cornell's second home game. Both teams come in well rested: UNCG gets 11 days off, Cornell 12. Last season's final adjusted ratings (efficiency per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) put Cornell at 1.4, 151st, and UNCG at -13, 305th, but heavy turnover on both rosters makes that gap a loose guide.

Cornell's opener cleared a 164.75 total. No Cornell injuries have surfaced, and nothing has turned up on UNCG's availability. No spread or total for this game had posted in our feed as of Nov. 5.

What to watch - Whether Beccles and Rafiq keep getting clean threes against an unfamiliar UNCG defense. - Cornell's turnover count in the first 10 minutes. - Grant and Mishak on the offensive glass against a Cornell team that struggled to finish possessions.