Binghamton vs Duquesne prediction: Duquesne's new bigs face a Binghamton interior Northwestern shredded

A paint problem in Binghamton

Binghamton opened its season at Northwestern and found out how thin its interior defense is. Northwestern made 77.3% of its two-point shots, which ranks 356th of 357 Division I teams so far. The Bearcats trailed 51-35 at halftime and lost 86-60 after Northwestern opened with an 11-0 run.

That isn't a new issue. Last season Binghamton allowed 53.1% on twos, 273rd nationally, and finished 360th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents).

Duquesne's opener pointed straight at that weakness. The Dukes made 61.5% of their twos against Purdue Fort Wayne, 100th so far, and barely bothered with threes. Creighton transfer Kerem Konan went 7-of-10 from the floor for 16 points and nine rebounds, and Oregon transfer Ege Demir added eight boards and two blocks. Binghamton blocked 4.5% of opponent twos at Northwestern, 305th nationally, so there may be little resistance at the rim.

The Guinyard question

The biggest unknown belongs to Duquesne. Tarence Guinyard, a first-team All-A10 guard last season, averaged 16.6 points with a 119.3 offensive rating. A court ruling in his favor secured a fifth year, but the appeal was still ongoing as of Oct. 29, and he sat on the bench for the Nov. 3 opener while the case stayed stalled. His eligibility is unresolved, so his status for this game is unclear.

The Dukes won without him, but not cleanly. They built a 14-0 start, then let Purdue Fort Wayne push late before Queens transfer Yoav Berman hit the go-ahead basket. Point guard Izaiah Pasha went 2-of-11. Guinyard's return would hand the ball to a proven creator and shift the matchup with Binghamton's guards.

Few steals, fewer second chances

Duquesne turned it over on 21.1% of its possessions in the opener, 266th nationally. Binghamton is poorly built to punish that. The Bearcats forced turnovers at a 13.7% rate last season, 351st of 365, and forced only 12.7% at Northwestern.

The glass tilts the same way. Binghamton grabbed 20.0% of its own misses in the opener, and last season's 21.8% offensive rebound rate ranked 361st. If the Bearcats miss, they rarely get a second look, which puts pressure on a guard group that shot poorly in Evanston.

Tempo is the Bearcats' best lever. They played at 63 possessions per 40 minutes against Northwestern, 336th, and were slow last season too. Fewer possessions mean fewer chances for Duquesne's size advantage to compound.

Two rebuilt rosters, early returns

Both programs turned over most of their rotations. Duquesne returns 28.8% of last season's minutes under third-year coach Dru Joyce III, with 10 newcomers. Binghamton returns 36.6% under Levell Sanders and lost its five leading scorers. Last season's team numbers are a weak guide for either side.

Binghamton's hopes still start with Quigley, who averaged 14.5 points and 6.4 assists last season. Northwestern held him to nine points on 2-of-10 shooting, and he fouled out. Demetrius Lilley pulled down 13 rebounds in that game, and redshirt senior forward Regimantas Ciunys is back after missing all of last season with an injury.

For Duquesne, West Georgia transfer Josh Smith scored 16 off the bench after averaging 16.2 points there last season. The schedule context matters too. Northwestern ranked 60th in adjusted net efficiency; Purdue Fort Wayne ranked 258th. Binghamton was picked third in the America East, its highest predicted finish ever, while Duquesne was picked 10th in the A-10. This game is part of a five-game home stretch opening the Dukes' season, and both teams come in well rested after a long layoff.