UC Riverside vs Fresno State prediction: Dragos Lungu and Fresno State's all-new roster face rebuilt UC Riverside
Two rosters assembled almost entirely over the offseason get their first Division I test, and Fresno State's newcomer guard carries the heaviest load.
- Fresno State should control the paint and the foul line at home, but UC Riverside's shooters can keep it close if Lungu is contained.
- Dragos Lungu against UC Riverside's interior: he scored 30 in the opener, and Tyus Parrish-Tillman blocked three shots in his.
- No spread or total is posted yet. Last season's adjusted net ratings, 131st against 273rd, give Fresno State the clearer baseline.
Starting over, twice
Nobody in Fresno knows quite what this team is yet, including the coaches. Fresno State returns 0.0% of last season's minutes. The Bulldogs have 13 new faces and no healthy players back, a fresh start for Vance Walberg in the program's first Pac-12 season. The two likely cornerstones of a continuity build, DeShawn Gory and Wilson Jacques, left for more NIL money elsewhere.
UC Riverside isn't far behind in the reset, bringing back 17.5% of last season's minutes. That matters because last season's numbers flatter neither side much. Fresno State finished 13-19, while UC Riverside went 10-22 and ranked 273rd in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions scored minus allowed, adjusted for opponents). Fresno State ranked 131st, but those ratings describe players who are mostly gone. The best guide is who these teams brought in.
Lungu is the engine
Fresno State's opener ran through Dragos Lungu, a guard who played last season at UT Martin and two before that at San Diego. He scored 30 points against Fresno Pacific on a 33.3% usage rate, the share of possessions he finished while on the floor.
The Bulldogs built their offense around getting inside. Their 3-point attempt rate of 23.7% ranked 351st of 357, meaning almost nobody shot fewer threes. Their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 47.5% ranked 75th. The catch is finishing at the line: Lungu made 45.5% of his free throws, and the team shot 60.7%.
UC Riverside has a shot-blocker to test that approach. Biola transfer Tyus Parrish-Tillman blocked three shots against La Verne, and Devon Malcolm added two off the bench. If the Highlanders send Lungu to the line instead of letting him finish, his free-throw shooting becomes a real question.
Shooters on the other side
UC Riverside's newcomers got loose from deep in the opener. Tony Duckett, a Saint Mary's transfer who barely played there last season, scored 21 on 3-of-4 from three. James Evans Jr. made three of his five tries.
Fresno State's perimeter defense is the soft spot to watch. Fresno Pacific shot 46.2% from three, which ranked 337th. The Bulldogs also brought in a shooter of their own: Ross Candelino hit 42.6% of his threes at Lipscomb last season, though he went 1-of-4 from deep in the opener.
Read the openers carefully
The scorelines point in opposite directions, and neither tells you much. UC Riverside beat La Verne 110-47. Fresno State needed a late push to get past Division II Fresno Pacific 88-79. The game was tied at 60 with 10:45 to play before Fresno Pacific went cold for five minutes. Neither opponent carries a Division I rating, so every season stat here comes from one game against lesser competition.
Tempo is the one clue that may carry over. Both teams played fast, with Fresno State at 78.5 possessions per 40 minutes and UC Riverside at 77. Both also come in with 12 days of rest, so neither side has a fatigue edge.
Fresno State has the home floor at the Save Mart Center and a program trying to end a 10-year NCAA Tournament drought. No new injuries turned up for either team. DJ Stickman's torn ACL, suffered last February, will keep him out for all of 2026-27.
Key players
- Dragos Lungu (Fresno State): Scored 30 points in the opener on a 33.3% usage rate, but made just 45.5% of his free throws.
- Ross Candelino (Fresno State): Had 17 points and eight rebounds in the opener after shooting 42.6% from three at Lipscomb last season.
- Roger Fabrega Urpina (Fresno State): Played 38 minutes in the opener and added 15 points and four assists.
- Tony Duckett (UC Riverside): The Saint Mary's transfer scored 21 points in 23 minutes and hit 3 of 4 threes against La Verne.
- Tyus Parrish-Tillman (UC Riverside): Posted 15 points, nine rebounds and three blocks in the opener on a team-high 27.4% usage rate.
- De'Undrae Perteete Jr. (UC Riverside): One of the few holdovers, he shot 40.8% from three last season across 26 games.
Numbers that matter
| Fresno State returning minutes | 0.0% | The Bulldogs return none of last season's minutes, so last season's team ratings say little about this group. |
|---|---|---|
| Fresno State 3-point attempt rate | 23.7% | That ranked 351st of 357 in the opener; Fresno State tried to score inside and at the foul line. |
| Lungu free throw % | 45.5% | Fresno State's top scorer struggled at the line, a weakness UC Riverside can make him prove in a close game. |
| Fresno State opponent 3-point % | 46.2% | Fresno Pacific got hot from deep, and UC Riverside's new shooters will look for the same. |
| Last season adjusted net rank | 131st | Fresno State's mark last season, against UC Riverside's 273rd, is the only Division I baseline, built mostly by departed players. |
UC Riverside vs Fresno State: quick answers
When is UC Riverside vs Fresno State?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET.