UAB vs Jacksonville State prediction: UAB's rebuilt Blazers take a defensive reset into Jacksonville State
Two nearly brand-new rosters meet in Jacksonville, and UAB's first test is whether a defense that gave up 99 points can slow a Gamecocks team that has run up 123.
- Two rebuilt teams with 12 days off; Jacksonville State brings the home floor and a faster opening-night tempo.
- UAB's guards protecting the ball against a Gamecocks defense that forced turnovers on 31.3% of LaGrange's possessions.
- No spread or total is posted yet; UAB closed a 3.0-point underdog in its opener and the game went over 152.5.
Two rosters built from scratch
Few programs turned over like these two. UAB returns only 9.7% of last season's minutes, with sophomore guard Salim London the lone holdover. Jacksonville State returns none: its share is 0.0%.
That makes last season's numbers a weak guide. UAB finished last season 112th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), while Jacksonville State sat 210th. Those ratings belong to players who are mostly gone.
What UAB still has is Kennedy, who is 145-62 with the Blazers and coming off a sixth straight 20-win season. Ray Harper rebuilt the Gamecocks through the portal, adding guards Jordan Stiemke from Loyola Maryland and Chris Lockett Jr. from Jacksonville.
UAB's defense needs a reset
The Blazers' opener against McNeese went badly on one end. McNeese posted a 63.8% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark where threes count 1.5 times), which ranks 338th nationally, and a 19-1 run decided the night. UAB trailed 44-35 at halftime and lost 99-78.
Opponents also hit 44.4% from three against UAB, 325th in the country. One game is a small sample, and McNeese ranked 63rd in adjusted net efficiency, a real opponent.
Jacksonville State's offense looked dangerous, but against LaGrange. The Gamecocks hit 44.7% of their threes and scored 64 points in the first half of a 123-59 rout. Treat that blowout as a sign of shape, not strength.
Blazers live at the line
UAB's best weapon in the opener was the free-throw stripe. Its free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) of 58.8% ranked 32nd, and it made 86.7% of those tries, 13th nationally.
That could matter here. Jacksonville State sent LaGrange to the line at a 53.8% clip, 320th in the country. If the Gamecocks keep fouling, the Blazers' guards can keep this close even on an off shooting night. Justyn Fernandez shot 87.8% from the line at Delaware last season.
Tempo and ball security
Jacksonville State ran at 83.5 possessions per 40 minutes in its opener, 13th nationally, while UAB played at 69.5, 230th. Expect the Gamecocks to push the home crowd's energy into transition.
The bigger risk for UAB is turnovers. The Blazers coughed it up on 20.3% of possessions, 252nd, and the Gamecocks forced turnovers at 31.3%, 19th. Last season's UAB team ranked 4th in turnover rate, but that ball-handling left with the old roster. Elijah Duval's five assists in the opener were a good sign; Deuce Jones going 2-for-7 was not.
Key players
- Elijah Duval (UAB): The Southern Utah transfer scored 15 points on 5-of-9 shooting with five assists against McNeese.
- Justyn Fernandez (UAB): He averaged 16.6 points and shot 40.3% from three at Delaware last season.
- Deuce Jones (UAB): He averaged 15.8 points at Saint Joseph's last season but opened here 2-for-7 from the field.
- T.J. Caldwell (UAB): He scored 10 points off the bench in the opener with a team-high 32% usage rate.
- Jordan Stiemke (Jacksonville State): The Loyola Maryland transfer led the opener with 17 points, hitting 4 of 8 threes.
- Chris Lockett Jr. (Jacksonville State): He handed out 10 assists in 20 minutes against LaGrange.
- Naas Cunningham (Jacksonville State): The UNLV transfer scored 14 points in 15 minutes, making 3 of 5 threes.
- Leon Horner (Jacksonville State): He added 11 points and four rebounds on 55.6% shooting in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| UAB returning minutes | 9.7% | Only Salim London is back, so last season's UAB numbers say little. |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville State returning minutes | 0.0% | The Gamecocks are an entirely new rotation under Ray Harper. |
| UAB opponent effective FG% | 63.8% | McNeese shot freely in the opener, a mark that ranks 338th nationally. |
| UAB free throw rate | 58.8% | Ranked 32nd, and Jacksonville State's defense allowed a 53.8% rate, 320th. |
| Jacksonville State forced turnover rate | 31.3% | Ranked 19th, against a UAB offense that turned it over on 20.3% of possessions. |
UAB vs Jacksonville State: quick answers
When is UAB vs Jacksonville State?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.