Tulane vs Akron prediction: Krystian Lewis drags Tulane to the foul line against a rebuilt Akron
Tulane's new star scores by drawing contact, while Akron's first-year coach runs a three-heavy offense with Evan Mahaffey's eligibility still unsettled.
- Akron hunts threes against a Tulane defense that gives them up. Tulane answers by grinding to the free-throw line behind Krystian Lewis.
- Lewis against Akron's perimeter defenders: he scored 40 points on a 43.9% usage rate in the opener.
- No line is posted yet. Tulane failed to cover as a 6.25-point favorite against UT Martin; Akron covered at Louisiana.
Lewis lives at the line
Tulane's season opened with a 100-98 double-overtime win over UT Martin. Krystian Lewis, a transfer from UL Monroe, scored 40 points and sank the final two free throws with less than a second left. He made 94.4% of his free throws that night. He also used 43.9% of Tulane's possessions while on the floor, which makes this offense his to run.
The Green Wave built their game on the foul line. Their free throw rate, free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, sat at 69.7%, 8th in Division I. The habit carries over from last season, when Tulane's rate of 43.4% ranked 13th. Ron Hunter, now in his eighth season, has kept that identity through a full roster reshuffle. Lewis is not a shooter: he went 1 of 5 from three in the opener. If Akron keeps him out of the lane without fouling, Tulane's offense has to find another route.
Akron fires from deep
Dustin Ford's Zips took 58.0% of their shots from three in their opener, 16th-most in the country, at a slow tempo. That volume lines up with the worst part of Tulane's start. Opponents took 57.6% of their shots from deep against the Green Wave, the 23rd-highest share in the country, and hit 44.7% of them.
Tahj Staveskie, a preseason All-MAC second-team pick, carries the volume. He went 5 of 15 from three at Louisiana after shooting 37.3% from deep last season at Incarnate Word. Tulane takes few threes of its own, so a hot Akron shooting day opens a gap that free throws can only slowly close.
The turnover gap
Ball security runs the other way. Akron turned it over on 24.2% of its possessions at Louisiana, 310th nationally, and forced turnovers on only 10.6%. Tulane coughed it up on just 10.5%, 20th-best. Tyler Ringgold and KJ Greene had three steals apiece in the opener.
Akron's defense looked sharp in other ways. Louisiana shot 25.7% inside the arc, 7th-lowest in the country, but that Louisiana team ranks 314th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Tulane's guards should test the Zips' handlers far more.
Two rebuilt rosters
Last season's numbers are a weak guide here. Akron returns 25.9% of last season's minutes and Tulane 25.5%. Akron went 29-6 last season and finished 61st in adjusted net efficiency. John Groce left in March for the College of Charleston, and leading scorer Tavari Johnson went there too. Akron beat Tulane 88-71 in New Orleans last December, but few players from either side remain.
The Zips were picked third in the MAC. Tulane was picked 10th in the American. Akron's biggest variable is off the floor. An Oct. 29 Ohio Supreme Court order kept Evan Mahaffey and transfer Kamrin Oriol eligible by preserving an earlier ruling, and a final decision was still expected as of late October. Mahaffey matters. He posted 16 points and 11 rebounds at Louisiana, and his status should be checked close to tip. On Tulane's side, Arizona State transfer Dame Salane played one minute in the Oct. 28 exhibition. The reason is unconfirmed.
Key players
- Krystian Lewis (Tulane): Scored 40 points with a 43.9% usage rate and 94.4% free-throw shooting in the opener.
- TJ Nadeau (Tulane): Hit all 3 of his threes in the opener after making 46.7% from deep last season at Detroit Mercy.
- Tyler Ringgold (Tulane): Added 14 points and 3 steals in 42 minutes against UT Martin.
- Tahj Staveskie (Akron): Took 15 threes and made 5 at Louisiana, carrying a 30.3% usage rate.
- Ty Pence (Akron): Led Akron with 19 points and 8 rebounds in the opener.
- Evan Mahaffey (Akron): Posted 16 points and 11 rebounds at Louisiana while his eligibility case remains open.
Numbers that matter
| Tulane free throw rate | 69.7% | Ranks 8th nationally, and the Green Wave were 13th in this stat last season too. |
|---|---|---|
| Akron 3-point attempt rate | 58.0% | 16th-most in Division I, aimed at a Tulane defense that let UT Martin hit 44.7% from deep. |
| Akron turnover rate | 24.2% | Ranks 310th, while Tulane's 10.5% ranks 20th. |
| Akron returning minutes | 25.9% | A new coach and roster make last season's 29-6 a loose guide. |
Tulane vs Akron: quick answers
When is Tulane vs Akron?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.