Towson vs Morgan State prediction: Alfred Worrell Jr. brings a hot hand at Towson's open three-point line

Worrell and the open arc

Morgan State's season so far has been the Alfred Worrell Jr. show. The senior guard is averaging 23.5 points while making 9 of 20 threes, and he opened with 27 points on 6-of-13 shooting from deep against Cheyney. He was the Bears' leading returner last season at 17.4 points per game, so this is not a fluke of opportunity.

Towson's defense is where the matchup gets interesting. Opponents have taken 52.8% of their shots from three against the Tigers, the 28th-highest share in Division I, and made 39.3% of them. Last season's Towson defense held opponents to 30.8% from deep, 35th nationally. Most of the players from that unit are gone, though, and the new group hasn't yet shown it can run shooters off the line. If Worrell gets clean looks, Morgan has a path even with a thinner résumé.

Towson's offense starts over

Only 25.7% of last season's minutes returned to Towson. The departures include Tyler Tejada (now at Cincinnati, 17.7 points per game last season) and Dylan Williamson (now at Rhode Island, 14.6). The early returns show it. Towson's effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 made shots, sits at 43.3% (304th), and the Tigers are making 54.5% of their free throws.

Jaquan Womack has stepped into a bigger role at 14.0 points and 9.0 rebounds per game. Zion Stanford has the highest usage rate on the team at 27.8%, but his offensive rating is 72.5. The player to watch is Ben Roseborough, the San José State transfer who shot 41.1% from three there last season but is 2 of 8 so far. Towson needs him to become the floor-spacer it is missing.

The Tigers did show some fight at Utah. They cut the lead to 59-53 with 1:19 remaining before falling 67-57.

Reading Morgan's gaudy numbers

The Bears are 2-0 and have outscored opponents by 51 and 37 points. Both wins came at home against non-Division I teams, Cheyney and Virginia-Lynchburg. That is why Morgan's raw defense ranks 14th nationally right now, and why that ranking says little about this game.

Last season's final adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) is a more honest baseline. Morgan ranked 354th of 365 and Towson 161st. Neither roster looks much like last year's group: Morgan returns 23.2% of its minutes and leaned on transfers such as John Awoke from Wagner. Towson's two losses at least came against real competition, a Santa Clara team ranked 40th and a Utah team ranked 122nd in last season's adjusted net. Towson also won the last two meetings in this local series, in 2023 and 2024.

Tempo, venue and timing

Morgan State has played at 81.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 18th-fastest in the country, although it did so against overmatched opponents. Last season's Towson team played at 64.7, 315th, and this group sits near the middle of the pack. The team that controls the pace likely controls the game. Towson cannot afford a track meet with an offense this cold.

The game is billed as a neutral-site consolation of the inaugural 410 Invitational. It will be played at TU Arena, Towson's home floor. Both teams play first-round games on Nov. 12, against Loyola for Towson and at UMBC for Morgan, so this pairing depends on those results. The listed tip is 1:00 p.m. ET, but a Morgan State schedule lists the men's consolation at 5:00 p.m. Check the time before tip.

What to watch - Whether Towson chases Worrell off the three-point line early - Roseborough's shooting, the clearest fix for Towson's offense - Whether Morgan's pace holds up against a Division I defense