Toledo vs Detroit Mercy prediction: Toledo's eight-game grip on Detroit Mercy meets two rebuilt rosters
The Rockets have owned this series for a decade, but almost nobody who built the streak will be on the floor at Calihan Hall.
- Two remade rosters, both coming off brutal openers; Toledo's shaky opening-night shooting points toward a grind more than a shootout.
- Angel Montas Jr., Toledo's new scorer, against Tyler Spratt, Detroit Mercy's preseason all-league guard and top returner.
- No line yet. Toledo covered as a 3.5-point underdog at Arkansas State, and that game stayed under 165.5.
A streak with new owners
Toledo has won eight straight meetings with Detroit Mercy, and its last loss in the series came in 2015. The Rockets won 82-67 at Calihan Hall in 2024 and 90-83 at home last November. That history belongs to players who have mostly moved on.
Toledo returns just 36.0% of last season's minutes. Sonny Wilson left for South Florida, and Leroy Blyden Jr., who scored 20 in last year's meeting, is now at Kansas. Senior center Austin Parks is the lone returning starter, and seven Rockets are wearing the uniform for the first time.
Detroit Mercy brings back 38.7% of its minutes and lost just as much at the top. Orlando Lovejoy, an all-conference first-teamer, transferred to Green Bay. TJ Nadeau, who made 46.7% of his threes last season, went to Tulane. Last season's team numbers are a weak guide for both sides.
Toledo's new engine
The opener at Arkansas State, the Sun Belt preseason favorite, offered a first look. Toledo lost 71-70 after Montas put it ahead with a layup in the final 1:36 and Jaylan Ouwinga's jumper later tied it at 70.
Montas, a transfer from UMass Lowell, averaged 15.8 points there last season. He came off the bench for 16 points and 10 rebounds. Mynor Strong, a part-time player last season, scored 18 and added four steals. Ouwinga posted 16 points and 14 rebounds.
Marquette transfer Sean Jones ran the offense with a career-high nine assists, though he shot 16.7% from the field. Parks played only 17 minutes. Last season he made 60.9% of his shots, so getting him more touches is an easy fix for an offense that needs one.
Where the shots go
Toledo's opener was rough from outside. The Rockets made 22.2% of their threes, 311th nationally, and Strong went 3-of-12. They also barely got to the line: their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 11.0% ranks 349th. Last season's Toledo made 36.7% from three, 37th in the country, but the shooters behind that number are gone.
Defense was the Rockets' weak spot last season, when opponents made 55.7% of their twos, 334th nationally. Arkansas State managed 42.4% inside the arc in the opener, a better start.
Detroit Mercy's offense runs through Tyler Spratt, a preseason All-Horizon second-teamer who made 38.5% of his threes last season. Last season's Titans rarely shot threes, ranking 342nd in attempt rate, and made up for it on the glass by grabbing 34.1% of their own misses (77th). They also shot 77.5% at the line, 22nd nationally. Who joins Spratt on the perimeter without Nadeau is the biggest question on Detroit Mercy's side.
A brutal week first
Neither team arrives after a soft week. Toledo faces No. 6 Michigan State tonight, its highest-ranked opponent since 2017, in what the school calls the toughest non-conference schedule in program history. Detroit Mercy opens Friday at Marquette. The Titans will play both Michigan and Michigan State this season for the first time since 1997-98.
Last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had Toledo 130th in net efficiency and Detroit Mercy 222nd. The preseason polls agree: Toledo was picked second in the MAC, Detroit Mercy seventh in the Horizon.
No spread or total has been posted. Toledo's only line so far went its way: it covered as a 3.5-point underdog, and the game went under.
Key players
- Angel Montas Jr. (Toledo): Posted 16 points and 10 rebounds off the bench in his Toledo debut after averaging 15.8 points at UMass Lowell last season.
- Mynor Strong (Toledo): Scored 18 with four steals at Arkansas State, but went 3-of-12 from three.
- Jaylan Ouwinga (Toledo): Had 16 points and 14 rebounds in the opener, including the jumper that tied it late.
- Austin Parks (Toledo): Made 60.9% of his shots last season but played only 17 minutes in the opener.
- Tyler Spratt (Detroit Mercy): Made 38.5% of his threes last season on 143 attempts.
- Lance Stone (Detroit Mercy): Shot 87.3% at the line last season, though just 32.7% from three.
- London Maiden (Detroit Mercy): Made 54.5% of his shots last season in 15.1 minutes a game.
Numbers that matter
| Toledo returning minutes | 36.0% | Parks is the only returning starter, so last season's Toledo numbers say little about this group. |
|---|---|---|
| Toledo 3-point % (opener) | 22.2% | Ranked 311th after one game, a sharp fall from last season's 37th-ranked shooting team. |
| Spratt 3-point % (last season) | 38.5% | Detroit Mercy's top returner and the best bet to replace Nadeau's shooting. |
| Detroit Mercy offensive rebound % (last season) | 34.1% | Ranked 77th, a way to generate offense for a team that rarely shot threes. |
Toledo vs Detroit Mercy: quick answers
When is Toledo vs Detroit Mercy?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.