Stonehill vs Texas Tech prediction: Texas Tech's turnover-hungry transfers face a Stonehill team starting over

Nine newcomers and two empty chairs

No. 19 Texas Tech is a new team wearing familiar colors. The Red Raiders return 34.2% of last season's minutes, and the two biggest pieces they kept are not both on the floor. JT Toppin, the All-Big 12 preseason pick, tore his right ACL in February and was listed out for the Nov. 2 opener with no return timeline. Forward Jamichael Stillwell was also unavailable for the homestand while his eligibility case plays out.

The transfers carried the load instead. Damarion Dennis, a Wyoming transfer, came off the bench for a career-high 22 points against Jackson State. Cruz Davis, who averaged 20.1 points at Hofstra last season and is expected to take over the point guard job, added 15 points and six steals. The 76-42 win extended Texas Tech's non-conference home winning streak to 47 games.

Where possessions get lost

The cleanest edge in this game is ball security. Texas Tech forced turnovers on 33.8% of Jackson State's possessions in the opener, eighth in Division I, a sharp turn from a team that ranked 322nd in that stat last season. Davis and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn combined for nine steals.

Stonehill's history suggests it will feel that pressure. Last season the Skyhawks turned it over on 20.0% of possessions, 347th of 365. The current backcourt is mostly new, so that number is a loose guide, but the man running it has struggled: Ruth handed out six assists against Curry while going 1-for-8 from the field.

Stonehill starts from scratch

Chris Kraus, in his 13th season, has rebuilt almost the whole roster. Stonehill returns 10.4% of last season's minutes from a 12-21 team that finished 333rd in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Its two leading scorers, Hermann Koffi and Davante Hackett, left for App State and Tennessee Tech.

The Skyhawks' only game so far came against Curry, a non-Division I school, so their season numbers tell us little. The 84-56 win did show where the scoring may come from. Jack Medalie had 18 points off the bench, and Florida A&M transfer Anquan Boldin Jr. added 15. This is also Stonehill's first season eligible for NCAA postseason play after its Division I transition.

A three-point team that hasn't found it

Texas Tech likes to shoot from deep. Last season the Red Raiders made 39.1% of their threes, seventh nationally, and in the opener more than half their shots came from beyond the arc. They made just 23.3% of them.

The misses were concentrated. Donovan Atwell, who shot 45.6% from three last season, went 0-for-6, and he and Darrion Williams went a combined 0-for-11 from the floor. Gibbs-Lawhorn went 1-for-7 from deep. Williams was also playing out of position at power forward with Toppin and Stillwell out.

Stonehill's defense was its best unit last season, and it kept opponents off the arc: its opponent three-point attempt rate ranked 345th, among the fewest threes allowed in the country. If the Skyhawks can push Texas Tech inside, the Red Raiders still have a fallback. They made 72.0% of their twos against Jackson State.

What to watch

• The early turnover count. Texas Tech held Jackson State to 18 first-half points; a similar start would end the suspense quickly.
• Atwell's shot. One bad night against a long track record from deep.
• Stillwell's status. Any eligibility ruling changes Texas Tech's frontcourt depth.
• The number. No spread or total is posted yet. Texas Tech's only priced game produced a non-cover and an under, a sign of how hard it can be to cover huge numbers when the shots aren't falling.