St. Thomas-Minnesota vs Army prediction: Tim Franks and a rebuilt St. Thomas test Army's veteran core

A new Tommies roster, same results

St. Thomas went 24-10 last season and then watched the roster scatter. Players on this season's team account for just 28.4% of last season's minutes, and the departures include the two leading scorers: Nolan Minessale left for Marquette and Nick Janowski for Davidson. That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide to this group.

The opener at Presbyterian offered a first look, and it was encouraging. The Tommies won 87-78 behind Tim Franks, who scored 24 points and hit 6 of 9 threes. Last season he averaged 4.0 minutes a game. Jeremy Lorenz and Hayden Tibbits each added 16.

The steadiest returning piece is Carter Bjerke, who shot 44.9% from three on 176 attempts last season. He went 1 of 3 from deep in the opener. Green Bay transfer Caden Wilkins, a 40.3% three-point shooter there last season, gives Tauer another spacing option.

Army lives and dies outside

Kevin Kuwik's teams fire away. Army ranked third in Division I in 3-point attempt rate last season (the share of shots taken from deep), and 57.7% of its attempts against Duke came from beyond the arc. The problem was accuracy: Army made 32.4% of its threes last season, 268th nationally.

That volume runs into a St. Thomas defense that guarded the line well a year ago, ranking 37th in opponent 3-point percentage. Much of that personnel is gone, so the question is open. Kevin McCarthy is the Army shooter to watch after he scored 17 at Duke and hit 4 of 9 threes. Army's best stretch in Durham came from that formula, a 12-0 run built on threes that cut the deficit to 44-30.

Read the Duke loss carefully

Army's season numbers are almost all the residue of one game against the No. 2 team in the country, which ranks second in adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Army turned it over on 34.3% of its possessions in the 84-50 loss, 355th nationally. Last season that turnover rate was 17.4%, a far more ordinary figure.

The better guide is who is back. Army returns 56.2% of last season's minutes and four starters, led by senior guard Ryan Curry, the only returning Patriot League player with more than 1,000 career points. He shot 2 of 9 at Duke but handed out 7 assists and made 3 steals. A St. Thomas defense that ranked 178th in forced turnover rate last season is unlikely to apply the kind of pressure Duke did.

The gap from last season

Last season's final adjusted ratings framed these programs far apart: St. Thomas finished 106th in adjusted net efficiency, Army 340th. The Tommies also won the head-to-head meeting in St. Paul a year ago, 83-76. Both measures describe a St. Thomas roster that largely no longer exists, while Army's version is mostly intact.

One trait the Tommies seem to have kept is a refusal to chase offensive rebounds. They ranked 358th in offensive rebound rate last season and sit 347th after one game. That plays into Army's hands on the defensive glass, where it ranked 60th in defensive rebound rate last season. Army rarely gets to the line, though, finishing 359th in free throw rate last season, so it will need to score from the floor.

What to watch

• Whether Franks backs up his opener or St. Thomas leans on Bjerke and Lorenz to carry the scoring.
• Army's three-point accuracy, which decides whether its volume approach is a weapon or a drain.
• Army's ball security in a far less hostile setting than Durham, with Curry running the offense.
• Both teams arrive with 12 days of rest, and Army gets its first home game of the season.