Southern Utah vs Wake Forest prediction: Kevair Kennedy steers a nearly new Wake Forest against Southern Utah

A roster built in the portal

Wake Forest's players this season logged only 4.5% of last season's minutes for the Deacons. The 18-17 team from 2025-26 is gone, and Juke Harris (now at Tennessee) and Myles Colvin (Cincinnati) left with it. Last season's ratings still rank Wake 64th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). With this little of the roster back, that number says more about the program than about this team.

The new group runs through Kevair Kennedy, a point guard from Merrimack who averaged 18.4 points there last season. He opened with 14 points, nine rebounds and eight assists against Maryland Eastern Shore. The Placide brothers gave Wake a frontcourt spark: Gavin Placide scored 20 on 72.7% shooting, and Gallagher added 13 off the bench. Monmouth transfer Justin Ray made 42% of his threes there last season on 157 attempts, and he scored 15 in the opener.

The health news is good. Jamari McDowell, the Kansas transfer who missed time this fall with plantar fasciitis, played on Nov. 2 and scored 11 points in 19 minutes. The most recent update on center Antonio Dorn, a Virginia Tech transfer, is from Oct. 10, when Forbes said Dorn was back after missing the Georgetown game.

Southern Utah's opener proved little

The Thunderbirds beat West Coast Baptist 134-69 in their opener, so their season numbers are noise. Last season gives a firmer baseline: a 10-22 record, 270th in adjusted net efficiency, and a defense that ranked 282nd once adjusted for opponents. That team has been rebuilt too, though less completely. Rob Jeter's players this season account for 24.2% of last season's minutes.

Jaiden Feroah is the main holdover. He averaged 13.5 points last season, made 41.5% of his threes and shot 86.5% at the line. Tennessee Tech transfer JaJuan Nicholls, a 6-9 forward, led the opener with 14 points. He shot 62.7% from the floor at Tennessee Tech without attempting a three. DJ Smith, a 6-10 freshman from Dallas, had 13 points and eight rebounds in 17 minutes. The Thunderbirds still have to replace Elijah Duval, who averaged 15.3 points and left for UAB.

Where possessions get lost

Last season's Southern Utah team played fast and loose. Its pace ranked 20th of 365, and its turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) ranked 339th. Most of those players are gone, but if the new guards have the same habits, Wake's opening night suggests the Deacons can punish them. They forced turnovers at a rate that ranks 60th nationally, led by Kennedy's four steals.

The glass may be Southern Utah's best chance to stay close. Wake ranks 284th in defensive rebound percentage this season, after ranking 309th last season. Nicholls and Smith give the Thunderbirds bodies who can make Wake pay for that.

Schedule and the market

This is the first meeting between the schools. Wake is paying Southern Utah $90,000 for the game. The Thunderbirds' first road trip has two stops in North Carolina: they visit High Point on Nov. 12, then make the short drive to Winston-Salem two days later.

No spread or total has been posted. The one data point from Wake's opener cuts in two directions. The Deacons closed as 32.5-point favorites against Maryland Eastern Shore, a team ranked 347th in adjusted net efficiency, and won by 21. That game also went over a closing total of 144.5. Expect a big number again, and expect Wake's depth to be the key question if this one gets lopsided in the second half.