South Dakota State vs Northern Colorado prediction: Short-handed South Dakota State carries a Kansas State upset into Greeley

One real test, one tune-up

Both teams are 1-0, and the two wins look nothing alike. South Dakota State went to Kansas State on Nov. 3 and won 68-66. Second-year coach Bryan Petersen got a signature win against a Wildcats team ranked 99th in adjusted net efficiency, a measure of points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents. The Jackrabbits closed as 10.75-point underdogs and won outright.

Northern Colorado opened by beating Colorado College 117-64 at home. The Bears led 52-21 at halftime. Their ranks from that game sit near the top of the country, including 3-point shooting of 53.3%, sixth nationally. Those numbers came against a team with no Division I rating, so this game is the Bears' first real measuring stick.

Northern Colorado lists the game as a home date at Bank of Colorado Arena. In September, SDSU's schedule release placed it at The Monument in Rapid City. Check the site before tip.

Sayler, Kern and a thin frontcourt

SDSU won at Kansas State without two forwards. Sophomore center Alec Squires and junior Jesse Van Kalsbeek, last year's NAIA player of the year and a preseason second-team All-Summit pick, both missed the opener with injuries. Neither has a public return timeline beyond Nov. 3, so their status for this game is unknown.

That opened the door for redshirt freshman Davis Kern. In his college debut he scored 24 points and made 5 of 8 threes. Preseason Summit Player of the Year Joe Sayler had a quieter night with 10 points. Sayler shot 41.2% from three last season, so a bounce-back is reasonable.

The Jackrabbits shot well from deep at Kansas State but made only 45.5% of their twos, 278th nationally. Western Michigan transfer EJ Ryans went scoreless in 31 minutes. Trey Buchanan, whose season ended after nine games last year, played 15 minutes off the bench.

Reynolds comes home to a new team

Coach Steve Smiley, in his sixth season, is rebuilding after a 20-12 year. Only 25.1% of last season's minutes return, so Northern Colorado's 2025-26 numbers say little about this group. Quinn Denker, Brock Wisne and Zach Bloch are all gone. Bloch shot 42.9% from three last season.

The familiar face is Langston Reynolds. He spent three seasons in Greeley, played last season at Minnesota and is back for a final year. He ran the offense against Colorado College with six assists. Jeremiah Hammond scored 17 points in 17 minutes off the bench. Center Hunter Caldwell made 4 of 6 threes and blocked three shots, a stretch-big profile that could pull SDSU's short-handed frontcourt away from the rim.

SDSU is less rebuilt than its host, returning 42.4% of last season's minutes. The Jackrabbits are also coming off a 14-18 season, their first losing record since 2009-10.

Few second chances, slower pace

Last season both programs cleaned the defensive glass about as well as anyone. Northern Colorado ranked fifth nationally in defensive rebound rate, the share of an opponent's misses a team collects, and SDSU ranked seventh. Both rosters have changed a great deal since then. Still, SDSU grabbed just 20.0% of its own misses at Kansas State, 329th nationally, so putbacks may be hard to find.

Tempo is the other question. The Jackrabbits played at 66.5 possessions per 40 minutes in the opener, 302nd nationally. Northern Colorado ran at 77 against a non-Division I team. Whichever side sets the pace shapes how many possessions the shooters get.

The last meeting, in November 2024, went to Northern Colorado 78-69 on a neutral floor. Both teams come in rested, with SDSU off 11 days and the Bears off 12.

What to watch

• Squires and Van Kalsbeek: whether either SDSU forward returns, and how much Kern's role changes if one does.
• Free throws late: SDSU made only 61.5% at the line at Kansas State, a problem in another tight finish.
• Caldwell's range: a center shooting threes tests a depleted SDSU frontcourt in a way Colorado College never did.