South Carolina Upstate vs Campbell prediction: Upstate's turnover habit tests Jimmie Williams' rebuilt Campbell

Two programs starting over

Campbell is effectively a new team. None of last season's minutes return to the Buies Creek roster, and Jimmie Williams took over in April after John Andrzejek left for an associate head coach job at Louisville. Williams arrives from Division II Anderson, where he went 29-3 last season and earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Division II tournament.

South Carolina Upstate isn't far behind. Players back from last season's 13-19 team account for 7.2% of its minutes, and the Spartans lost their three leading scorers to transfer. That makes last season's numbers a poor guide for either side. Campbell finished last season 197th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), with Upstate at 291st, but almost nobody who produced those ratings is still around.

What each team showed on Nov. 2 is the best evidence available, and both will play more games before Saturday. Upstate hosts South Carolina State, visits Coastal Carolina and hosts Bob Jones. Campbell goes to Western Michigan and East Tennessee State, so its first three games all come on the road.

Upstate keeps giving it away

The clearest number from Upstate's 83-70 loss at East Carolina is its 28.6% turnover rate, the share of possessions that ended in a giveaway. That ranks 340th of 357. The Spartans actually shot it reasonably well, posting a 55.1% effective field goal percentage (a measure that counts threes 1.5 times), but too many trips never produced a shot.

Campbell's defense forced turnovers on 19.1% of NC State's possessions, middle of the pack at 177th. The Camels were tidier with the ball themselves, turning it over at a 14.7% rate that ranks 120th. If that gap holds, Campbell gets extra shots it badly needs. Amont'e Allen-Johnson, who had seven assists at East Carolina, is the guard most responsible for steadying Upstate.

Campbell's cold shooting, Upstate's open looks

Campbell's opener against NC State, a team that ended last season 34th in adjusted net efficiency, was a shooting disaster. The Camels made 23.3% of their threes, 304th nationally, and managed 19 first-half points, which ranks 344th. Their effective field goal percentage of 42.1% sat 303rd.

The matchup offers relief. Upstate let East Carolina hit 48.0% from three, 344th in the country, and gave up 44 points before halftime. Campbell took 42.9% of its shots from deep in the opener, so it will keep firing. Waddles is the best bet to convert: he made 78 threes at a 38.2% clip at Omaha last season and opened with 19 points and nine rebounds.

Neither offense will lean on the foul line. Upstate's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranked 344th in its opener, and Campbell's ranked 348th.

Size and the Upstate scorers

Upstate is the bigger team. Its minutes-weighted average height is 77.4 inches, against 74.7 for Campbell. That shows up in Miles Webb, the Delaware State transfer who opened with 12 points and 10 rebounds on 6-of-10 shooting. Upstate grabbed 33.3% of its own misses at East Carolina, and a smaller Campbell lineup will need to box out.

The Spartans' scoring came from the backcourt. Ries Naugle had 15 points on 12 shots, and Jalyn Patterson came off the bench to hit four of his eight threes for 16. Campbell's Rashawn Inglemon carried the Camels' offense with 20 points on a 29% usage rate, though he needed 11 three-point attempts to make three. Whichever team's guards look more settled after two more games will likely control this one.