Rider vs Villanova prediction: Villanova's turnover fix gets an ideal test against rebuilt Rider
The Wildcats gave away a winnable opener in Rome, and a Rider defense that barely forces mistakes offers the cleanest chance to show it was a one-night problem.
- Expect Villanova's shooters to control this early, with the margin hinging on whether the Wildcats keep their turnovers closer to last season's level.
- Villanova's three-point volume against a Rider defense that let Pittsburgh shoot 53.8% from deep.
- No line posted yet. Both teams failed to cover their openers, and both games went over the closing total.
The giveaway problem
Villanova led Notre Dame 35-31 at halftime in Rome and still lost 74-72, failing to cover as a 7.25-point favorite. The culprit was ball security. The Wildcats posted a turnover rate of 28.6% (turnovers per 100 possessions), 340th of 357 teams. That is a sharp break from last season, when they ranked 61st in that stat.
Rider is poorly built to keep that problem alive. The Broncs forced turnovers on 13.7% of Pittsburgh's possessions, 305th nationally. If Villanova's guards simply stop handing over possessions, this game should open up quickly. Elijah Crawford, the UIC transfer, ran the second unit in the opener with five assists and three steals, and his decision-making is a good gauge of whether the sloppiness was opening-night rust.
Threes on tap at the Pavilion
Villanova took 59.6% of its shots from three against Notre Dame, 11th-most in the country. Tyler Perkins, cleared in October after offseason right shoulder surgery and a preseason All-Big East first-team pick, hit 5 of 11 for 18 points. Cornell transfer Jake Fiegen added three more makes and turned in an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 68.8%.
Rider's perimeter defense is where that volume should pay off. Pittsburgh shot 53.8% from three against the Broncs, 356th of 357. Pitt also led 50-26 at halftime on its way to a 95-57 win, and a similar flood of open looks would let Villanova put this away early.
Rider starts from zero
Rider brings back none of last season's minutes. That makes the 4-25 record from 2025-26 a weak guide; Flash Burton, last season's leading scorer, is now at UMBC, and the rest of the core is gone too.
The new group struggled to score at Pitt. Rider's effective field goal percentage was 37.7%, and it made just 33.3% of its twos. Bryce Baker led the way with 11 points, while Ty Bevins went 0 of 8. The best reason for optimism is Mark Butler, the Lafayette transfer who averaged 4.2 assists there last season. Stephen Avegah Semey also gave Rider useful bench minutes, scoring nine in 16 minutes, largely at the line.
Size inside, and one soft spot
Villanova's frontcourt runs through 7-foot-3 Luigi Suigo, who withdrew from the NBA Draft to join the Wildcats. Notre Dame made only 34.1% of its twos, 42nd nationally, a sign Villanova's length can bother Rider inside.
The opener did expose a weakness on the glass. Villanova secured only 61.4% of available defensive rebounds, 297th. Rider was just 291st in offensive rebounding at Pitt, so second chances may not be where the Broncs find relief. Villanova is also thinner up front than planned: Matt Hodge, a returning starter, remained out with a torn ACL and no return date as of Nov. 2.
Setting and schedule
This is Villanova's home opener and one of the buy games that close its nonconference slate. Rider's schedule stacks road trips to Pitt, Villanova, Miami, UConn and Georgetown. Both teams have nearly two weeks off between games, so neither side has a rest edge.
The last meeting, in November 2024, ended Villanova 72, Rider 48. The program on the other bench is very different now, but the gap between a team picked third in the Big East and a rebuilding Metro team has not narrowed.
Key players
- Tyler Perkins (Villanova): Scored 18 points on 5-of-11 three-point shooting against Notre Dame after being cleared from shoulder surgery.
- Jake Fiegen (Villanova): Averaged 17.1 points at Cornell last season and posted a 68.8% effective field goal percentage in the opener.
- Elijah Crawford (Villanova): Had 12 points, five assists and three steals in 25 minutes against Notre Dame.
- Luigi Suigo (Villanova): Started and posted seven points and five rebounds in 24 minutes in Rome.
- Bryce Baker (Rider): Led Rider with 11 points at Pittsburgh, hitting 2 of 7 threes.
- Mark Butler (Rider): Averaged 10.7 points and 4.2 assists at Lafayette last season and scored six at Pitt.
- Khalil Farmer (Rider): Added nine points and five rebounds at Pitt, making 2 of 4 threes.
- Stephen Avegah Semey (Rider): Scored nine points with five rebounds in 16 minutes off the bench at Pitt.
Numbers that matter
| Villanova turnover rate | 28.6% | Ranked 340th in the opener loss to Notre Dame, compared with 61st in this stat last season. |
|---|---|---|
| Rider forced turnover rate | 13.7% | 305th nationally, so Rider is unlikely to pressure Villanova into mistakes. |
| Villanova 3-point attempt rate | 59.6% | 11th-most in the country, a volume approach aimed squarely at Rider's weakness. |
| Rider opponent 3-point % | 53.8% | Pittsburgh's shooting against Rider ranked 356th of 357 defensively. |
| Rider returning minutes | 0.0% | An entirely new rotation makes last season's numbers a weak guide. |
Rider vs Villanova: quick answers
When is Rider vs Villanova?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.