Rice vs Stephen F. Austin prediction: Chotikavanic and SFA's three-point barrage test a rebuilt Rice defense
Two retooled rosters, one game each against non-Division I opponents, and a Stephen F. Austin team that hoisted threes like nobody else in the country on opening night.
- SFA's shooters set the terms at home; Rice stays close only if its pressure turns Lumberjack possessions into empty trips.
- Narit Chotikavanic, a proven high-volume shooter, against a Rice perimeter defense still defining roles after nine newcomers arrived.
- No line posted yet; last season SFA finished 90th in adjusted net efficiency, Rice 241st, though both rosters have since turned over.
Two programs starting over
Stephen F. Austin won 28 games last season and brought back almost none of the team that did it. The Lumberjacks finished 90th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), then lost leading scorer Keon Thompson, Lateef Patrick to Fordham and Jerald Colonel to Florida International. Only 24.3% of last season's minutes are back for Matt Braeuer's second team.
Rice, in Rob Lanier's third season, is coming off a 13-18 year and a 241st-place adjusted net finish. The Owls return 36.0% of their minutes after Nick Anderson left for San Diego State. With that much churn, last season's team numbers are a loose guide on both sides. SFA won the only recent meeting, 81-69 in Houston last November.
The Lumberjacks let it fly
SFA's 120-61 opener over Lyon came with a striking shot chart: 71.8% of its field goal attempts were threes, the highest rate in Division I so far. The Lumberjacks made 46.4% of them. Lyon is not a Division I program, and neither is Rice's opening opponent, so treat every number from opening night as a hint rather than a baseline.
The volume shooter is real, though. Narit Chotikavanic went 6 of 9 from deep against Lyon, and he is not a one-game wonder: he shot 39.4% from three off the bench last season. Freshman Erik Makke added 5 of 8. For context, the 2025-26 Lumberjacks took threes on 39.8% of their shots, so this looks like a deliberate shift in identity for a team that lost its top slasher.
Rice's hands against SFA's handle
Rice's best weapon on opening night was its pressure. The Owls forced turnovers on 28.6% of Dallas Christian's possessions, 31st in the country, and broke the game open with a 19-0 run. Guard Dallas Hobbs piled up 7 assists and 3 steals off the bench even while shooting 1 of 7.
That is a big change from last season, when Rice's forced turnover rate ranked 218th. SFA protected the ball well a year ago, with a turnover rate that ranked 20th, but Thompson and Patrick handled much of that load. Lanier said after the opener that his team still needs to define roles and sustain its defensive intensity. Against a team firing threes this often, every live-ball steal is one fewer shot from deep.
Size and the defensive glass
Rice is the bigger team, with a minutes-weighted average height of 77.3 inches to SFA's 76.0. Jimmy Oladokun Jr. made all 7 of his shots in the opener and added 3 blocks, and Seton Hall transfer Jacob Dar led the Owls with 20 points and 8 rebounds.
The weak spot is the defensive boards. Last season Rice grabbed just 66.8% of opponents' misses, 314th nationally. A high-volume three-point team produces long rebounds, and SFA rebounded 53.3% of its own misses against Lyon. La Salle transfer Edwin Daniel, who blocked 3 shots in the opener, gives the Lumberjacks some of the rim presence they lost with Colonel.
Key players
- Narit Chotikavanic (Stephen F. Austin): Hit 6 of 9 threes for 18 points in the opener after shooting 39.4% from deep last season.
- Erik Makke (Stephen F. Austin): Made 5 of 8 threes for 15 points in his college debut.
- Edwin Daniel (Stephen F. Austin): Blocked 3 shots in 16 minutes against Lyon after averaging 1.3 blocks at La Salle last season.
- Jacob Dar (Rice): Scored 20 points with a team-high 31.9% usage rate in the opener.
- Jimmy Oladokun Jr. (Rice): Went 7 of 7 from the floor with 3 blocks and 3 steals against Dallas Christian.
- Carmelo Adkins (Rice): Averaged 13.5 points at South Carolina Upstate last season but shot 2 of 9 in his Rice debut.
Numbers that matter
| SFA 3-point attempt rate | 71.8% | Share of SFA's shots that were threes in its opener, the most in Division I. |
|---|---|---|
| SFA returning minutes | 24.3% | Share of last season's 28-6 team's minutes still on the roster. |
| Rice forced turnover rate | 28.6% | Ranked 31st nationally in the opener, a sharp jump from last season's 218th. |
| Rice defensive rebound % (last season) | 66.8% | Ranked 314th in 2025-26, a weakness against a team generating long misses from three. |
Rice vs Stephen F. Austin: quick answers
When is Rice vs Stephen F. Austin?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.