Portland State vs San Francisco prediction: San Francisco's turnover hunt greets Portland State's brand-new Vikings
Two programs that kept almost nobody from last season settle their first real test on the Dons' floor, and ball security may matter more than any shot.
- Expect the Dons to slow the Vikings down and pressure the ball, turning a rebuilt Portland State offense into a half-court grind.
- San Francisco's ball pressure, which forced turnovers on 28.8% of Radford's possessions, against a Vikings backcourt still learning to play together.
- No line has been posted yet. The Dons closed -14 in their opener, pushed against the spread and stayed under 154.5.
Almost nobody came back
Portland State won the Big Sky regular season last spring, then watched nearly its entire rotation leave. San Francisco went through the same purge. Saturday at the Sobrato Center is the first real look at two programs that are, in effect, starting over.
Players on Portland State's current roster accounted for just 3.7% of last season's minutes. San Francisco's figure is 1.4%, and Chris Gerlufsen, in his fifth season, is working with 14 newcomers. Terri Miller Jr., who averaged 19.1 points last season, is gone from the Vikings. Ryan Beasley, who scored 23 in the Dons' 80-70 win in this matchup last November, is now at Washington.
That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide. Portland State's adjusted defense (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) finished 66th of 365 last season, while San Francisco's finished 165th. Those figures say more about Jase Coburn's and Gerlufsen's systems than about the players who will take the floor.
The Dons take the ball away
San Francisco's one game came against a Division I opponent, so its numbers carry a little more weight. The Dons forced turnovers on 28.8% of Radford's possessions, 29th nationally, and Ben Oosterbaan, a transfer from St. Thomas-Minnesota, was in the middle of it.
Portland State gave the ball away on 17.7% of its trips in a 111-59 rout of Lewis & Clark, a team with no Division I rating. That ranks 189th, and it came against far less pressure than the Vikings will see Saturday.
The Vikings also didn't take the ball away much themselves, forcing turnovers at an 11.5% rate that ranks 334th. If that holds, San Francisco gets to run its offense without many empty trips, and Portland State has to win on efficiency alone.
Whose speed wins out
Portland State played fast in its opener, running 78.5 possessions per 40 minutes and winning the fast-break battle 21-3. Much of that came off a mismatch in talent that won't exist here.
San Francisco prefers to walk it up. The Dons played at 67 possessions against Radford, 293rd nationally, and last season's team ranked 324th in pace. Last season's Dons ranked 324th in pace, and Ismaila Diagne gave them 16 points and 11 rebounds inside in the opener. The team that sets the tempo likely sets the shape of the scoring, too.
Free throws and a long trip
The Dons got to the line constantly against Radford, posting a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 61.4%, 25th nationally. They made only 60.0% of those attempts, which left points on the floor in a game they won 76-62.
Portland State arrives with 11 days of rest and a 1-0 record, all at home. Forward Ndewedo Newbury returned for San Francisco's opener after an absence; there has been no status update since Nov. 3.
Key players
- Luke Kearney (Portland State): Led the Vikings with 17 points in the opener and hit 3 of 5 threes.
- Yaroslav Nikonov (Portland State): Used 32.4% of possessions while he was on the floor, the heaviest load on the team, and scored 14.
- Trevor Frank (Portland State): Made 4 of 8 threes on the way to 13 points against Lewis & Clark.
- Emil Skytt (Portland State): Averaged 3.7 points in a reserve role last season at North Dakota State and grabbed 7 rebounds in his Vikings debut.
- Dylan Bordon (San Francisco): Scored 20 with 7 assists in his debut while using 27.4% of possessions.
- Ismaila Diagne (San Francisco): Posted 16 points and 11 rebounds after averaging 1.1 points at Gonzaga last season.
- Ben Oosterbaan (San Francisco): Had 3 steals in the opener after shooting 36.8% from three at St. Thomas-Minnesota last season.
- Gustav Knudsen (San Francisco): Played 37 minutes and added 13 points and 2 blocks against Radford.
Numbers that matter
| Dons' forced turnover rate | 28.8% | Ranked 29th nationally against Radford, the strongest edge either team showed in its opener. |
|---|---|---|
| Vikings' returning minutes | 3.7% | Almost none of the Big Sky champions' minutes are back, so last season's numbers say little. |
| Dons' returning minutes | 1.4% | San Francisco is rebuilt even more completely, with 14 newcomers. |
| Dons' pace | 67 | San Francisco's possessions per 40 minutes ranked 293rd, a sharp contrast to Portland State's fast opener. |
| Dons' free throw % | 60.0% | San Francisco lives at the line but missed often there in its opener. |
Portland State vs San Francisco: quick answers
When is Portland State vs San Francisco?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.