Pennsylvania vs Saint Joseph's prediction: TJ Power's veteran Penn tests a rebuilt Saint Joseph's at Hagan

Continuity against a rebuild

Philadelphia's Big 5 rivalry rarely pits two teams this differently built. Penn returns 77.6% of last season's minutes and was picked as the Ivy League favorite, with 11 first-place votes. Saint Joseph's brings back just 36.7% of its minutes after an A-10 semifinal run and was picked sixth of 14 in its league.

Penn's loss is a big one. Ethan Roberts averaged 16.9 points last season but could not play a final season at Penn under Ivy League eligibility rules, and he is now at Notre Dame. The rest of the core is back, starting with TJ Power, who scored 44 points in last March's Ivy tournament final and shot 43.2% from three last season. Notre Dame transfer Sir Mohammed adds a guard.

Saint Joseph's lost more. Derek Simpson, Dasear Haskins and center Justice Ajogbor all started at least 33 games last season and are gone. That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide for the Hawks. Their first game showed who carries them now: Jaiden Glover-Toscano scored 22, Khaafiq Myers added 17, and BJ Ranson scored 17 off the bench.

Penn's threes, the Hawks' rim protection

Penn's offense last season was lopsided. The Quakers made 38.4% of their threes, 12th in Division I, but shot just 47.2% inside the arc, which ranked 344th. They also took relatively few threes, ranking 273rd in 3-point attempt rate (the share of shots from deep).

That profile runs into Saint Joseph's best early trait. Against Longwood, the Hawks blocked 28.6% of opponents' two-point tries, seventh nationally, with Davidson transfer Sean Logan swatting six. Last season's Saint Joseph's defense held opponents to 47.1% on twos, 30th in the country, though most of that frontcourt has moved on.

If Logan and the Hawks keep Power and Augustus Gerhart from scoring easily inside, Penn has to win from deep. Penn's rotation also has the size edge, with a minutes-weighted average height of 78.2 inches against 76.7 for Saint Joseph's.

Free throws could swing it

Neither team has been reliable at the line. Penn made 69.3% of its free throws last season, 287th nationally, although Michael Zanoni shot 92% and is the guard Penn wants handling the ball late.

Saint Joseph's got to the line often against Longwood, posting a 49.2% free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt). It made just 58.1% of those tries, and Logan went 14.3%. Penn's defense limited fouls last season, ranking 34th in opponent free throw rate. If that carries over, the Hawks lose one of the ways they scored in the opener.

Pace, rest and the home floor

Saint Joseph's played fast against Longwood, at 76 possessions per 40 minutes, well above last season's 68. The Hawks also protected the ball, ranking 40th with an 11.8% turnover rate. They led 40-28 at halftime before Longwood, ranked 267th in adjusted net efficiency, cut into the margin.

Saint Joseph's will have had 10 days off when this game tips. Penn opens its season Nov. 5 at No. 3 Illinois, the same program that ended its season last March, so its rest before this game is not yet known. This is the Hawks' home floor after the last two meetings were played at Penn. Saint Joseph's won 86-69 in 2024, and Penn won 83-74 last November.

What to watch:

• Power's efficiency inside against Logan's shot-blocking.
• Whether Glover-Toscano's 3-of-5 shooting from three in the opener holds up against Penn's perimeter defense.
• Free throws in the final minutes, where neither team has earned trust.