Northern Iowa vs Oakland prediction: Two near-total rebuilds collide as Northern Iowa visits Oakland

Almost nobody is back

Last December, Northern Iowa beat Oakland 75-63 in Cedar Falls. Almost nobody from either team in that game will be on the floor at the O'rena. Northern Iowa returns 9.6% of last season's minutes and Oakland returns 9.9%. That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide to this one.

The Panthers' change runs deepest. Ben Jacobson is gone, and Kyle Green, hired April 1 from Iowa State's bench, inherits a program whose identity was defense. Last season Northern Iowa allowed 61.8 points per game, the fewest in Division I. That wall left with the players and the coach who built it.

Oakland has continuity on the bench, with Greg Kampe in his 43rd season, but little else. The Golden Grizzlies list 10 newcomers. Brody Robinson, who averaged 17.6 points last season, is now at Creighton.

What the openers showed

Northern Iowa routed Cornell College 106-70 on Nov. 3, but Cornell isn't a Division I program. The Panthers' early numbers, including a pace of 90 possessions, describe a mismatch and not a style. The only real clue is who got the ball. Six players logged at least 15 minutes, and most of them are transfers.

Oakland's Nov. 2 opener was a much tougher test, a 84-68 loss at Michigan, the top team in adjusted net efficiency. The Grizzlies trailed 47-36 at half but covered as 27.5-point underdogs. They shot terribly: an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 36.5%, 335th nationally. What kept the game respectable was effort on the glass and at the rim.

Second chances and the whistle

Against Michigan, Oakland grabbed 44.7% of its own misses, an offensive rebound rate that ranks 53rd. Its free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, was 47.6%, 74th. Those are a rebuilt team's survival tools when shots don't fall. A home floor and an easier opponent should help both.

The other end is the worry. Oakland collected only 59.0% of opponents' misses, 312th, and Michigan shot 64.9% inside the arc. Oakland's defense was a problem before the rebuild, too: its adjusted defensive efficiency last season (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked 288th. A guard-heavy Northern Iowa rotation that attacks off the dribble could find room.

The newcomers carrying the load

Northern Iowa's offense runs through Greyson Uelmen. He averaged 17.1 points at North Dakota last season on a 29.3% usage rate, and he opened with 17 points, 7 rebounds and 3 steals. Carson Vis scored 18 off the bench in 21 minutes. Isaiah Johnson-Arigu, a 10.5-point scorer at St. Thomas last season, added 12 in 15.

Oakland leaned on Chris Fields Jr., who posted 18 points and 10 rebounds at Michigan, though on 5-of-14 shooting. Nassim Mashhour added 16. He played only 10 games last season around an injury, but he made 37.7% of his threes in that stretch. Ryder Bradley's 12 points and 4 steals off the bench stood out.

One subplot: RJ Taylor, a Northern Iowa guard last season, now plays for Oakland. Both teams come in after long breaks, with 11 days off for the Panthers and 12 for the Grizzlies.