Northern Illinois vs Bellarmine prediction: Bellarmine's broken defense faces Northern Illinois's new three-point barrage
A Knights defense that finished dead last in the country last season gets an early test from a Huskies roster rebuilt from scratch and built to shoot.
- Expect a shootout tilted toward the three-point line, with Bellarmine trying to find offense after losing its two best scorers.
- Northern Illinois's volume shooters against a Bellarmine perimeter defense that allowed the highest opponent 3-point percentage in Division I last season.
- No line has been posted yet; both teams failed to cover in their openers, Northern Illinois as an 8.5-point favorite.
A defense with nowhere to hide
Bellarmine's problem last season was never scoring. It was stopping anyone. The Knights finished 364th of 365 in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions), and their opponent-adjusted defensive rating ranked dead last in the country. The worst of it came behind the arc: opponents shot 39.7% from three, the highest mark in Division I, and fired away freely, ranking fourth nationally in the share of shots taken from deep.
That is the wrong profile to bring into a game against this Northern Illinois roster. In its opener, the Huskies took 51.7% of their shots from three, 45th nationally after one weekend, and made 45.2% of them. New coach Matt Majkrzak built a team that lets it fly, and Bellarmine's history says it will get clean looks.
One early sign cuts the other way. Vanderbilt attempted threes on 34.5% of its shots against the Knights, well below the share Bellarmine's opponents took last season, as the Commodores scored at will inside.
Bellarmine without its engine
Last season's Knights could at least outscore some of their defensive mistakes. That offense is largely gone. Jack Karasinski, who averaged 21.7 points, left for Northwestern, and Brian Waddell, a 15.0-point scorer, has also departed. Players on this roster accounted for 48.4% of last season's minutes but only 38.7% of its points.
The opener at No. 24 Vanderbilt showed the cost. Bellarmine trailed 44-17 at halftime and lost 93-47, turning the ball over on 32.9% of its possessions. The Knights did score 30 after the break, a small sign of life against an elite opponent.
The hope rests on Kenyon Goodin, a Preseason All-ASUN guard who shot 41.8% from three last season. He went 1-for-6 at Vanderbilt. Bellarmine needs his shooting back at its usual level to keep pace.
Northern Illinois starts from zero
No team in this matchup is newer than the Huskies. Players on the current roster logged none of last season's minutes for a program that went 9-21, so last season's numbers say almost nothing about this group. Majkrzak, hired from Northern Michigan in March, leaned heavily on Division II transfers, including four from his previous program.
The Grambling loss offered a first look. The Huskies took care of the ball, posting an 11.8% turnover rate that ranked 38th, and Max Weisbrod, a fifth-year guard from Northern Iowa, handed out eight assists. They also rallied from down 12 in the second half before a late three missed in an 89-87 loss.
The defense is the worry. Grambling made 73.0% of its twos, 350th nationally, and got to the line constantly. Bellarmine's offense has been toothless so far, but a team that finished 4th in 2-point shooting last season still has some of the players who drove that.
What to watch
- Bellarmine's ball security. After a turnover rate near one in three at Vanderbilt, the Knights cannot give a careful Huskies team extra possessions.
- David Douglas Jr.'s volume. Expected to be a go-to scorer, he shot 39.7% from three at Fresno State last season.
- Paint defense on both ends. Neither team protected the rim in its opener, so whichever side finishes inside more efficiently gains an edge.
- The line. None was posted as of this writing; watch where it opens given both openers.
Key players
- Max Weisbrod (Northern Illinois): Dished eight assists in 31 minutes against Grambling after shooting 38.3% from three at Northern Iowa last season.
- David Douglas Jr. (Northern Illinois): Scored 12 points with a 20.4% usage rate in the opener, hitting 2 of 4 threes.
- Nino Carter-Smith (Northern Illinois): Went 3-for-3 from three and scored 13 points in 18 minutes off the bench against Grambling.
- Kenyon Goodin (Bellarmine): Shot 41.8% from three last season but managed only two points on 1-for-6 shooting at Vanderbilt.
- Tyler Doyle (Bellarmine): Averaged 10.0 points and 3.8 assists last season and led the Knights with three assists in the opener.
- Jacob Wassler (Bellarmine): Was the Knights' most efficient player at Vanderbilt, scoring eight points on 3-of-5 shooting.
Numbers that matter
| Bellarmine opponent 3P% last season | 39.7% | The worst 3-point defense in Division I last season, against a Huskies team built to shoot. |
|---|---|---|
| NIU 3-point attempt rate | 51.7% | More than half of Northern Illinois's shots in its opener came from deep. |
| NIU returning minutes | 0.0% | A completely new roster makes last season's 9-21 team a poor guide. |
| Bellarmine turnover rate | 32.9% | The Knights gave it away on nearly a third of their possessions at Vanderbilt. |
| NIU opponent 2P% | 73.0% | Grambling scored freely inside, an opening for a Bellarmine team that needs easy baskets. |
Northern Illinois vs Bellarmine: quick answers
When is Northern Illinois vs Bellarmine?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.