NJIT vs Fairfield prediction: NJIT's missing jump shot faces Fairfield's second-chance machine

The shot that hasn't fallen

NJIT's season opened with a 89-58 loss at Dayton, and the shooting line explains most of it. The Highlanders made 12.0% of their threes, 352nd of 357 Division I teams so far. Their effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, was 37.1%. None of the six players who logged the most minutes made a three.

That is one game against a Dayton team ranked 69th in adjusted net efficiency, so it proves little alone. It does echo last season, when NJIT shot 30.3% from deep, 344th nationally.

Fairfield's defense last season didn't stop many threes once they were launched. It kept them from being launched. Opponents took a three on 35.7% of their shots, one of the lowest shares in the country at 302nd. If the Stags push NJIT inside again, the Highlanders lose the one shot that could make up for their spacing problems.

Second chances in Fairfield

The clearest edge on the board is the offensive glass. Fairfield grabbed 36.1% of its own misses last season, 33rd in the country. NJIT's defensive rebounding ranked 272nd last season, and at Dayton it collected only 48.6% of the available defensive boards.

Fairfield also held onto the ball, posting a turnover rate of 15.1 per 100 possessions, 63rd nationally. Put those together and the Stags figure to get more shots than NJIT.

Fairfield had real flaws too. Its effective field goal percentage ranked 305th last season, and it rarely reached the foul line, 348th in free throw rate (free throw attempts per shot). The Stags won by shooting more often, not by shooting better. NJIT drew fouls at Dayton but made just 60.0% of its free throws, which can't sustain a comeback.

Two rosters starting over

NJIT returns just 37.8% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers are a loose guide. Top scorer Sebastian Robinson left for Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, and Ari Fulton went to St. Bonaventure. In Grant Billmeier's fourth season, the offense now runs through newcomers. UTSA transfer Matheo Coffi scored 12 at Dayton, and VMI transfer Mario Tatum Jr. went 2-for-8. Returning guard David Bolden averaged 11.8 points last season but missed all six of his shots in the opener, though he did add four assists and three steals.

Fairfield's turnover is lighter but still steep. Braden Sparks and his 17.2 points per game are gone, and rebounder Brandon Benjamin left for Boston College. Declan Wucherpfennig is the anchor: a guard who averaged 8.5 rebounds last season with an offensive rating of 122.6. Junior forward Qadir Martin led the NEC in blocks at Mercyhurst. Forward Peyton Smith is expected back after missing last season with an injury, though Fairfield hasn't detailed his role.

Schedule, stakes and health

Fairfield was picked as the Metro preseason favorite. NJIT was picked fourth in the America East and sits 347th in the preseason KenPom ratings. Both teams have games before this one. Fairfield opens against Vermont on Thursday and then plays Bryant. NJIT plays at Iona on Thursday and at Rutgers on Nov. so it arrives at Leo D. Mahoney Arena with two more games played.

Last November, Fairfield won 74-53 at NJIT. Last season's final adjusted ratings also favored the Stags: 248th in net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) against NJIT's 337th. Fairfield listed no injuries as of Nov. 3. An undated NJIT injury listing showed none.