Morgan State vs Towson prediction: Alfred Worrell Jr. carries a rebuilt Morgan State toward Towson

A matchup still in pencil

Start with the caveat that matters most. Towson's schedule lists its Nov. 14 opponent as "UMBC or Morgan State." Morgan State's schedule has the Bears at Towson that day. Both teams are in the inaugural 410 Invitational, which Towson hosts for the championship round, and the bracket opens Thursday, Nov. 12, with Loyola at Towson and Morgan State at UMBC. Which opponent Towson actually faces appears to hinge on those opening results, and neither school has said more.

If it is Morgan State, this renews a short local series that Towson has controlled lately: a 67-58 home win in November 2023 and a 64-60 road win a year later. Those rosters are mostly gone. This game would be about who has built faster.

Worrell is the constant

Morgan State returns just 23.2% of last season's minutes, and last season's team numbers, including a net efficiency ranked 284th, say little about this group. Kevin Broadus, the reigning MEAC Coach of the Year in his eighth season, rebuilt the backcourt with newcomers.

The exception is Alfred Worrell Jr. He averaged 17.4 points last season and has opened at 23.5 per game, making 9 of 20 threes. He finishes a third of Morgan State's possessions when he's on the floor, so the offense runs through him. Keith Richard has settled in beside him with 5.5 assists per game, and Ibrahima Traore has blocked 3.0 shots a game inside.

Read the 2-0 start carefully. Morgan State beat Cheyney 103-52 and Virginia-Lynchburg 95-58, neither a Division I opponent. The gaudy defensive rankings come from those two games. The wing additions haven't found their shot yet: Wagner transfer John Awoke is 3 of 13 from deep.

Towson's defense needs rebuilding too

Towson won games last season by defending. It allowed 66.1 points per game, 17th nationally, and its defensive efficiency ranked 46th. The Tigers return only 25.7% of the minutes that produced those numbers, after Tyler Tejada left for Cincinnati and Dylan Williamson for Rhode Island.

The opener at Santa Clara, a top-40 team by adjusted net efficiency, was rough. Towson lost 89-70 as a 13.5-point underdog. Santa Clara took over half its shots from three, and Towson's opponents are shooting 42.4% on those, 317th nationally. A perimeter defense that loose would give Worrell room to shoot.

On offense, preseason second-team All-CAA pick Zion Stanford scored 15 points but made just 28.6% of his shots. Jaquan Womack, one of the few returners, added 15 points and 12 rebounds. San José State transfer Ben Roseborough went 0 of 6 from three after shooting 41.1% there last season. CAA coaches still picked Towson fourth, a vote of confidence in a roster that has played one game together.

Tempo and the offensive glass

Last season the two programs played different styles. Towson's pace ranked 315th, among the slowest in the country, while Morgan State's ranked 56th. Whoever sets the tempo shapes the total once a line appears.

Towson's most reliable trait has been second chances. It ranked 24th in offensive rebound rate last season, the share of its own misses it rebounds, and grabbed 40.0% of its misses at Santa Clara. Morgan State's defensive rebounding ranked 320th last season, though new bigs like Traore and Trent Edwards, at 8.5 rebounds a game, haven't yet been tested by a Division I front line.

What to watch

• The Nov. 12 results, which appear to decide whether this pairing happens at all.
• Worrell's volume against Towson's perimeter defense.
• Towson's guards finding a shot: Stanford and Roseborough combined for 2 made threes at Santa Clara.
• Towson on the offensive glass, its most dependable edge from last season.