Montana vs North Dakota prediction: Montana's new shooters test a rebuilt North Dakota in Grand Forks
Both rosters were remade over the summer, and Montana's early shooting has looked far further along than North Dakota's.
- Montana's guards should find open threes against a North Dakota defense still sorting itself out, unless Zach Kraft's shooting returns to last season's form.
- Tyler Thompson and freshman Semaj Carter on the perimeter against a North Dakota backcourt built around Kraft and transfer Samuel Hincapie.
- No line is posted yet. Montana covered as a 19.25-point underdog at Oregon, while North Dakota failed to cover at 26.25 points at Minnesota.
Two rebuilds, different starts
Few teams in the country turned over more than these two. North Dakota returns 20.3% of last season's minutes, just three players in Josh Jones, Zach Kraft and Karson Ouse. Its top scorer, Greyson Uelmen, left for Northern Iowa after averaging 17.1 points. Paul Sather, in his eighth season, is leaning on a Serbian pro, Andrija Radojevic, to anchor the frontcourt and a four-man freshman class to fill minutes.
Montana is only slightly more settled. The Grizzlies bring back 33.0% of last season's minutes and lost Money Williams, who scored 20.6 a game, to Boston College. Travis DeCuire, in his 13th season, added 10 newcomers and is also working without longtime associate head coach Chris Cobb and assistant Jay Flores.
That turnover makes last season's ratings a shaky guide. For what they're worth, Montana finished 190th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) and North Dakota 278th. Montana opened the year 243rd in KenPom's preseason projection.
Where the threes fall
North Dakota's opener at Minnesota was a shooting disaster. The Fighting Hawks lost 85-50 and made 10.7% of their threes, which left them 352nd nationally in effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times). Kraft went 1 of 8 from deep. He is the obvious candidate to bounce back: last season he made 39.2% of his threes on 176 attempts.
Montana's shooting has gone the other way, though one of its two games was a 105-40 rout of non-Division I Salish Kootenai, so its season numbers run hot. Thompson, the most experienced returner, is 6 of 12 from three, and Carter, a freshman, is 7 of 12 off the bench. Minnesota hit 40.0% from three against North Dakota. If that perimeter defense doesn't tighten, Montana's guards will have room.
The Oregon game is the better read on Montana. The Grizzlies were tied with the Ducks with 10 minutes to play before losing 87-69, and they covered comfortably.
Montana's frontcourt questions
Montana played at Oregon without starting forward Kenyon Aguino and reserve big Amari Jedkins. Aguino started all 34 games last season and averaged 8.4 points. No update on either had surfaced as of Nov. 3, so their status for this trip is unsettled.
Transfer Clayton Mpiana has carried the load inside, pulling 7.0 rebounds a game. Thompson has also been disruptive defensively, averaging 3.5 steals.
North Dakota's most active scorer so far is freshman Jayden Moore, who scored 13 off the bench at Minnesota with a 40.5% usage rate, meaning he ended a huge share of possessions while he was on the floor. How Radojevic holds up against Mpiana will shape whether North Dakota can keep this inside the arc.
An old rivalry on a road swing
These are former Big Sky rivals, and DeCuire is 10-1 against North Dakota. The last meeting, on Dec. 6, 2025, came in Grand Forks, where Montana erased a 10-point deficit and won 79-75.
The schedule asks more of Montana this time. The Grizzlies play at San Francisco on Nov. 10, come to Grand Forks, then face Kansas State two days later. North Dakota arrives on 12 days of rest since Minnesota, with time to fix what went wrong there. The Summit League picked the Fighting Hawks sixth in its preseason poll.
Key players
- Tyler Thompson (Montana): He is 6 of 12 from three this season after making 40.1% of his threes last season.
- Semaj Carter (Montana): He leads the team at 13.0 points per game on 7 of 12 shooting from three.
- Clayton Mpiana (Montana): He averages 7.0 rebounds in 19.5 minutes and has handled the frontcourt with Aguino out.
- Jordan Clark (Montana): He averages 12.0 points and 5.0 assists with a team-high-among-starters 21.7% usage rate.
- Zach Kraft (North Dakota): He went 1 of 8 from three at Minnesota after shooting 39.2% from deep last season.
- Jayden Moore (North Dakota): He scored 13 points off the bench at Minnesota with a 40.5% usage rate.
- Samuel Hincapie (North Dakota): He started at Minnesota and scored 5 points after averaging 4.9 per game at Le Moyne last season.
Numbers that matter
| North Dakota 3-point % this season | 10.7% | The Fighting Hawks' one game, at Minnesota, left them 356th nationally from deep. |
|---|---|---|
| Kraft's 3-point % last season | 39.2% | North Dakota's best returning shooter is the likeliest source of a correction. |
| North Dakota returning minutes | 20.3% | Only three players are back, so last season's numbers say little about this team. |
| Montana's closing spread at Oregon | 19.25 | The Grizzlies covered that number in an 87-69 loss, tied with Oregon with 10 minutes to play. |
| DeCuire vs. North Dakota | 10-1 | Montana's coach has dominated this former Big Sky series, including a 79-75 win in Grand Forks last December. |
Montana vs North Dakota: quick answers
When is Montana vs North Dakota?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET.