Miami (OH) vs Evansville prediction: Miami's rebuilt RedHawks bring a 32-game streak into Evansville
Last season's nation-leading offense lost three of its top scorers, and a rebuilding Evansville team gets the first home look at what replaced them.
- Miami's shooting should open space against an Evansville defense that couldn't guard the arc last season, unless the Aces win the turnover battle.
- Watch Miami's guards, Luke Skaljac and Evan Ipsaro, who combined for seven steals at James Madison, against Evansville ball handler Bryce Quinet.
- No line has been posted yet. Miami covered as an underdog and went over a 158.5 total in its opener.
A champion starting over
Miami's 2025-26 season was hard to top. The RedHawks went 32-2, won the MAC and led Division I in offensive efficiency at 132.2 points per 100 possessions. They carry a 16-game road winning streak and 32 straight regular-season wins into this game, and they open the year ranked No. 1 in a preseason mid-major poll.
Much of the team behind those numbers is gone. Miami returns 48.5% of last season's minutes. Travis Steele, in his fifth season, brings back 11 players and adds six newcomers, so last season's team profile is only a rough guide to this group.
The comeback at James Madison
The opener showed both the new roster's limits and its fight. Miami trailed 41-35 at halftime, fell behind by nine in the second half, then used a 13-0 run to win 86-77 as a slight underdog.
The shooting was not pretty. Skaljac scored 19 points but went 5 of 14 from the field. Almar Atlason, who averaged 9.8 points last season, went 1 of 7 from three. Miami's guards were disruptive, though. Skaljac had three steals and Ipsaro had four in his first game back from the knee injury that ended his season last December.
The transfer shooters haven't shown up in the box score yet. Youngstown State transfer Rich Rolf made 36.8% of his threes last season, and Milwaukee transfer Stevie Elam, who pairs with sophomore Justin Kirby at combo guard, is part of the rotation Steele is still sorting out.
Evansville's arc problem
The Purple Aces went 7-25 last season and finished last in the MVC. Their 3-point defense was the weak spot: opponents shot 37.0% from deep, 353rd of 365 teams. Even after its roster losses, Miami should get open threes if Evansville's perimeter defense hasn't improved.
Evansville looks even less like last year's team than Miami does. The Aces return 32.4% of last season's minutes, and David Ragland, also in his fifth season, has rebuilt around forward AJ Casey and guard Bryce Quinet. Their opener came against Indiana-Kokomo, which is not a Division I team, so this season's numbers tell us little. Evansville trailed that game by eight at halftime before winning 80-70.
Where Evansville can hang around
Ball security will decide whether the Aces stay close. Last season Evansville turned it over on 19.0% of its possessions, 319th nationally, and grabbed only 23.0% of its own misses, 356th. A team that gives away possessions and gets few second chances can't keep up with a stronger opponent.
The opener was cleaner. Quinet handed out 11 assists, and Evansville turned it over on just 8.8% of possessions, though against a non-Division I opponent. Miami's guards will test that improvement. Evansville also brings some length: its minutes-weighted average height is 78.4 inches to Miami's 77.0, and Makuei Riek blocked two shots against Kokomo.
Evansville won the last meeting 72-64 at home in November 2023. Both teams come in on 12 days of rest, so neither has a schedule edge.
Key players
- Luke Skaljac (Miami (OH)): Led Miami with 19 points and five assists at James Madison, hitting 3 of 6 from deep.
- Evan Ipsaro (Miami (OH)): Scored 15 points with four steals in his return from last December's season-ending knee injury.
- Almar Atlason (Miami (OH)): Made 36% of 164 threes last season but opened this one 1 of 7 from deep.
- Antwone Woolfolk (Miami (OH)): Pulled down 10 rebounds and shot 3 of 4 in the opener after starting all 33 games last season.
- AJ Casey (Evansville): Evansville's leading returner at 13.5 points last season, he opened with 19 points and 8 rebounds.
- Bryce Quinet (Evansville): Dished 11 assists against Indiana-Kokomo despite shooting 25% from the field.
- Makuei Riek (Evansville): Had five steals and two blocks in the opener, though he shot 30% from the field.
Numbers that matter
| Miami returning minutes | 48.5% | Roughly half of the 32-2 team's minutes are back, so last season's numbers are only a rough guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Miami offense last season | 132.2 | Points per 100 possessions, first in Division I, though the key shooters behind it are gone. |
| Evansville opponent 3P% last season | 37.0% | That ranked 353rd of 365, a weak spot against any team that can shoot. |
| Evansville turnover rate last season | 19.0% | Ranked 319th; holding onto the ball is how the Aces stay close. |
| Evansville returning minutes | 32.4% | Even less of Evansville's roster is back than Miami's. |
Miami (OH) vs Evansville: quick answers
When is Miami (OH) vs Evansville?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.