Manhattan vs Le Moyne prediction: Le Moyne's Trevor Roe brings the threes as two rebuilt rosters collide
Both programs turned over nearly everything this offseason, so Le Moyne's shoot-first identity against a Manhattan defense that conceded the arc at Kentucky may be the clearest clue on the board.
- Two nearly new rosters, each bruised by a high-major opener, meet on Le Moyne's floor where the Dolphins' three-point volume should set the terms.
- Trevor Roe, who hit five threes at Nebraska, against a Manhattan defense that let Kentucky take 51.7% of its shots from deep.
- No line is posted yet; Manhattan covered +33.25 at Kentucky, while Le Moyne missed at +35 in a 106-64 loss at Nebraska.
Two teams starting over
Few November games feature two rosters this unfamiliar with themselves. Manhattan returns just 7.4% of last season's minutes. Le Moyne returns 4.0%, with reserves Trevor Roe and Josiah Lee the only letterwinners back among 13 newcomers, 10 of them Division I transfers.
That makes last season's numbers a weak guide. For the record, Manhattan finished with an adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) of -17.7, 330th nationally, and Le Moyne sat at -12.1, 296th. Almost none of the players who built those marks remain.
Manhattan coach John Gallagher lost key rotation players, including Jaden Winston, now at Pacific, and rebuilt around transfers such as Colgate's Ben Tweedy and Niagara's Josiah Sabino. He also added Ben Pearce, the reigning Division III National Player of the Year. These programs have met once, a 81-77 Le Moyne win at Manhattan in November 2024, which says little about either group now.
Le Moyne lets it fly
The Dolphins' one game showed a clear plan: shoot threes and share the ball. Le Moyne took 51.8% of its field goal attempts from deep at Nebraska, 44th nationally, and assisted on 77.3% of its baskets, 11th.
Roe was the engine. The returning forward scored 20 points and made five threes, and his usage rate of 34.8% says the offense ran through him. Jayden Teat, a transfer from Sacramento State, added 14 points and five assists.
Manhattan's opener offers little resistance to that style. Kentucky took 51.7% of its shots from three against the Jaspers, and hit 38.7% of them. If Manhattan again concedes the perimeter, Le Moyne gets the game it wants.
Turnovers and the foul line
Le Moyne's ball security is the counterweight. The Dolphins turned it over on 23.9% of possessions at Nebraska, 308th nationally. Manhattan's defense forced turnovers on 21.2% of Kentucky's trips, 127th, a rare bright spot in the loss.
Manhattan also got to the line, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 42.6%, 114th. Converting was the problem: the Jaspers made 52.2% of their free throws. Last season's team shot 79.5%, third in the country, but the guards behind that mark are gone. Kevin Kearney, who made 83.3% of his attempts off the bench at Kentucky, may be the safest hands in a close finish.
The glass offers little separation. Manhattan grabbed only 50.0% of available defensive rebounds at Kentucky, but Le Moyne rebounded just 19.4% of its own misses at Nebraska, 335th.
Reading the opening blowouts
Both openers came against top-30 opponents, so the scorelines mean less than the shape of the games. Manhattan led Kentucky early before trailing 48-22 at halftime, then held the second half closer and covered as a 33.25-point underdog. That game stayed under its 158.5 total.
Le Moyne also led early, 12-10, before Nebraska pulled away to a 58-32 halftime edge. The Dolphins failed to cover at +35, and the game flew over its 151.5 total.
The schedule stays busy before this one. Le Moyne visits Creighton on Thursday night, and Manhattan has an Albany home game on its schedule. No spread or total has been posted for Saturday yet.
Key players
- Trevor Roe (Le Moyne): Scored 20 points with five threes at Nebraska on a 34.8% usage rate.
- Jayden Teat (Le Moyne): Posted 14 points and five assists in his Le Moyne debut.
- Kaden Stuckey (Le Moyne): Made 80% of his shots for eight points at Nebraska.
- Novak Manojlovic (Manhattan): Led Manhattan with 11 points on 5-of-10 shooting at Kentucky.
- Ben Tweedy (Manhattan): Shot 38.5% from three at Colgate last season and scored nine at Kentucky.
- Kevin Kearney (Manhattan): Scored 11 points in 18 minutes with a team-high 30.7% usage rate.
Numbers that matter
| Le Moyne 3-point attempt rate | 51.8% | Ranked 44th nationally in the opener, the clearest identity marker for the Dolphins. |
|---|---|---|
| Manhattan opponent 3-point attempt rate | 51.7% | Kentucky got to the arc freely, a door Le Moyne will try to walk through. |
| Le Moyne turnover rate | 23.9% | Ranked 308th, giving Manhattan's active hands a path to extra possessions. |
| Manhattan free throw % | 52.2% | A team that gets to the line has to convert to stay close late. |
| Manhattan returning minutes | 7.4% | Le Moyne returns even less, so last season's ratings say little about either team. |
Manhattan vs Le Moyne: quick answers
When is Manhattan vs Le Moyne?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET.