LSU vs Gonzaga prediction: Will Wade's brand-new LSU gets its first real test from Gonzaga

One opener meant more

Not one minute from last season's LSU roster is back. Returning minutes sit at 0.0%. Will Wade, back on the LSU bench after being fired from the same job in 2022, rebuilt almost entirely through transfers. The opener suggested it works: a 100-57 rout of New Orleans that was 53-17 at halftime.

New Orleans ranks 208th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), though, and every LSU season number carries that opponent's fingerprints. The Tigers were picked to finish 14th of 16 in the SEC. Spokane is a very different room.

Gonzaga's opener carried real weight. The 15th-ranked Zags beat Purdue 78-72 on a neutral floor against a team ranked 8th in adjusted net efficiency. They did it with only 13.7% of last season's minutes back, a week after an exhibition loss at Arkansas in which the Razorbacks ran off 18 straight points around halftime. Last season's final ratings had Gonzaga 9th and LSU 65th, but with rosters this new, those numbers describe programs more than these teams.

Fogle and the foul line

Gonzaga beat Purdue without shooting well. It got to the line instead. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 64.2% ranks 18th nationally. Davis Fogle drove that, scoring 22 points on a 35.3% usage rate while hitting 90% of his free throws. He made only a third of his field goals, so the whistle did a lot of the work.

LSU's lone game points to a matching flaw. Even while winning by 40-plus, the Tigers let New Orleans reach the line at a rate that ranks 337th of 357. If that fouling habit follows them to Spokane, Fogle gets a steady supply of free points.

The counterweight is LSU's length at the rim. Gonzaga made just 45.9% of its twos against Purdue, 276th nationally, and Braden Huff went 36.4% from the floor. LSU blocked 18.8% of New Orleans' two-point tries, 52nd nationally. Gonzaga's half-court offense has to finish better inside or keep drawing contact.

Wade's sprint, Few's walk

Wade's first LSU team ran. The Tigers played at 81.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 22nd nationally. Last season's LSU team played at 66.1, so the speed is new. Gonzaga played at 69 against Purdue, 247th.

Donovan Dent is the engine: 19 points and 10 assists in 30 minutes. Saliou Niang added 14 points, 14 rebounds and six steals, and Michael Ruzic scored 17 off the bench. The missing piece was Skyy Clark, who went 0-for-4 from three after shooting 42.7% from deep at UCLA last season. Gonzaga's backcourt counterpart, Xaivian Lee, hit 3 of 4 threes and scored 18 against Purdue.

Whoever sets the tempo shapes the game. LSU wants a track meet. Gonzaga's opener was a grind: 69 possessions and a 78-72 win.

Who is cleared to play

Eligibility hangs over both rosters. Dent won a preliminary injunction that allows him to play the whole season. Clark's injunction is less permanent, and the NCAA is expected to appeal both. RJ Luis will not play for LSU this season. Austin Nunez was expected to miss time with a foot injury as of early October, and no update has surfaced since.

For Gonzaga, Chauncey Wiggins remained ineligible as of late October while his lawsuit in Georgia is stayed. Izan Almansa was cleared a day before the Arkansas exhibition and scored 11 against Purdue. Fogle sat out that exhibition with a left leg injury described as day-to-day, then played 34 minutes against Purdue.

Where the market starts

No spread or total has been posted in our feed yet. Both teams covered their openers and both went under. LSU closed as a 27.5-point favorite against New Orleans, and Gonzaga covered as a 5.5-point favorite against Purdue. With one team playing fast and the other slow, how fast this game runs is the open question for the total. The game tips at 12:30 p.m. local time on USA Network.