Loyola Chicago vs Colorado State prediction: Loyola Chicago's transfer rebuild faces Colorado State's returning shooters

Two letterwinners and a rebuild

Colorado State starts its first Pac-12 season with something Loyola Chicago couldn't buy: continuity. The Rams return 57.9% of last season's minutes. The Ramblers return 14.6%, with only Xavier Amos and Nic Anderson back from a team that went 9-24.

That makes Loyola's numbers from last season a weak guide. Its adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) finished 274th, but Drew Valentine, in his sixth season, rebuilt around 12 transfers, a true freshman and an international. The early returns are promising. Dayan Nessah, who averaged 15.5 points at Cleveland State last season, put up 19 points and 9 rebounds in the opener. Guillaume Grotzinger ran the offense with 11 assists.

Colorado State's identity is the jump shot. The Rams made 38.5% of their threes last season, and the shooters mostly stayed: Josh Pascarelli hit 41.5% from deep, with Carey Booth, Kyle Jorgensen and Jase Butler close behind. Media picked the Rams fourth in the Pac-12. The Atlantic 10 poll put Loyola 11th.

Where Loyola can steal possessions

Loyola's best path runs through extra possessions. Against The Citadel, the Ramblers forced turnovers on 30.6% of possessions and grabbed 57.9% of their own misses, the 7th-best offensive rebound rate in the country so far. Context matters: The Citadel ranks 349th in adjusted net efficiency.

Still, the pressure points at a real Colorado State weakness. The Rams gave it away on 21.9% of possessions against Montana State, 284th nationally, and ball security was a problem last season too. The glass is a tougher sell. Colorado State rebounded 80.0% of opponents' misses in its opener, so Loyola's second chances will have to be earned, not given.

A tempo question with no clear answer

Loyola crawled through its opener at 62 possessions, 343rd in the country. Colorado State ran 73 against Montana State, a surprise from a team that ranked 361st in pace last season.

Which version of the Rams shows up shapes the total. Farokhmanesh, in his second year, played slow last season. Loyola's 12-0 opening run against The Citadel came from a defense that held the Bulldogs scoreless for nearly ten minutes, the kind of grinding start that keeps scores down.

The line and the late-game edge

If this is close late, free throws favor the hosts by a wide margin. Colorado State made 86.4% at the line in its opener. Loyola made 53.8% and rarely got there, a flaw that matters most in the final minutes.

The Rams also won this matchup last November, 80-67 in Chicago, though almost none of that Loyola roster remains. No spread or total has been posted yet. Both teams covered or missed against very different opponents: Loyola rolled past The Citadel, while Colorado State beat a tougher Montana State but fell short of a -10.75 number. Both teams have had 12 days off since those openers.