Louisiana vs UNC Wilmington prediction: Patrick Wessler awaits a Louisiana offense that couldn't finish inside
Both rosters were torn down and rebuilt, but UNC Wilmington kept its preseason Player of the Year at center, and Louisiana's opener suggests it has no answer for him yet.
- UNCW, the CAA favorite, should control the paint at home against a Louisiana team that made barely a quarter of its twos against Akron.
- Patrick Wessler against Louisiana's interior, which let Akron shoot 61.9% on two-pointers in the opener.
- No line is posted yet. Louisiana failed to cover as a 5.5-point underdog against Akron, and that game went under 148.5.
Wessler and an open lane
Louisiana made 25.7% of its two-point attempts in its 75-61 loss to Akron, which ranks 354th of 357 Division I teams. That is one game against a good opponent, but the Cajuns had the same problem last season, when they made 44.9% of their twos and ranked 357th of 365.
The other end of the floor looks just as uncomfortable. Akron shot 61.9% on twos, and Louisiana's interior defense ranked 301st in that one game. Now it faces Patrick Wessler, the CAA's preseason Player of the Year, who averaged 13.6 points on 59.9% shooting last season. He opened this season with 14 points and 12 rebounds in 18 minutes against Division II Mount Olive. If Louisiana can't keep him from catching deep, it won't matter much what happens on the perimeter.
Two programs starting over
Neither roster looks much like last season's. Louisiana brings back 29.6% of last season's minutes. UNCW brings back only 23.7%, after a 27-7 season that ended with a CAA regular-season title. That makes last season's gap in team ratings a weak guide. Still, it was a big one: UNCW finished 104th in adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), and Louisiana finished 314th.
Takayo Siddle, in his seventh season, restocked with six transfers and three freshmen. The most dangerous newcomer is William Kermoury, who shot 40.2% from three at Northeastern last season. UNCW still earned 11 first-place votes in the CAA preseason poll, enough to be picked first.
In Quannas White's second season, Louisiana leans hard on Jamyron Keller. He scored 26 against Akron while using 35.8% of the team's possessions, but needed 13 three-point attempts to get there. Transfers Dani Pounds and Trent Middleton Jr. added 15 and 14 points in their debuts.
Where Louisiana can hang around
The Cajuns took care of the ball against Akron. Their turnover rate of 10.6 per 100 possessions ranked 21st nationally. That matters because last season UNCW was not a team that forced mistakes: its defense ranked 298th in forced turnover rate. If Louisiana keeps getting a shot up on nearly every trip, it can keep the game shorter than UNCW would like.
There is also some fight in this group. Down 19 in the second half against Akron, Louisiana got within 59-49 with 9:30 left before a 7-0 Akron run ended it. The problem was the start: the Cajuns trailed 46-29 at halftime.
Rest, road and the last meeting
Both teams come in on 12 days of rest, so neither has a fatigue edge. For Louisiana, this begins a three-game road stretch that runs through the Palm Springs Holiday Classic. Starting forward Todd Jones Jr. sat out the Nov. 2 opener with no reason given, and there has been no update on his status since. He is one of the few frontcourt players back from last season, and Louisiana can't afford to lose size against Wessler.
This is the return game of last season's series. UNCW won 70-63 at Louisiana last December. Last season Louisiana played at the 347th-fastest pace in the country, so expect the Cajuns to try to slow things down in Trask Coliseum.
Key players
- Jamyron Keller (Louisiana): Scored 26 against Akron with a 35.8% usage rate, though he made just 4 of 13 threes.
- Dani Pounds (Louisiana): Posted 15 points, 7 rebounds and 3 steals in his Cajuns debut.
- Trent Middleton Jr. (Louisiana): Hit 4 of 7 threes against Akron after averaging 12.5 points at North Carolina A&T last season.
- Patrick Wessler (UNC Wilmington): Shot 59.9% from the field last season and opened this one with 14 points and 12 rebounds in 18 minutes.
- William Kermoury (UNC Wilmington): Made 74 threes at a 40.2% clip for Northeastern last season.
- Jahnathan Lamothe (UNC Wilmington): Shot 40.3% from three last season and added 12 points and 7 rebounds in the opener.
- Gavin Walsh (UNC Wilmington): Opened with 10 points and 10 rebounds against Mount Olive.
Numbers that matter
| Louisiana 2-point % | 25.7% | Ranked 354th of 357 after the Akron loss, a bad sign heading into a game against Wessler. |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana opponent 2-point % | 61.9% | Akron scored easily inside, and UNCW's offense runs through its center. |
| Louisiana turnover rate | 10.6% | Ranked 21st in the opener, which is the Cajuns' best route to keeping the game close. |
| UNCW returning minutes | 23.7% | UNCW has rebuilt around Wessler, so last season's 27-7 team is only a rough guide. |
| Wessler FG% last season | 59.9% | The CAA's preseason Player of the Year is an efficient finisher facing a soft interior. |
Louisiana vs UNC Wilmington: quick answers
When is Louisiana vs UNC Wilmington?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.