Longwood vs Old Dominion prediction: Old Dominion's early defensive squeeze awaits Longwood's sprinting rebuild
Two heavily remade rosters collide in Norfolk, and the Monarchs' first-week defense looks like the sturdiest thing either side has shown.
- Old Dominion wants a grinding half-court game at home; Longwood wants to run. Whoever sets the tempo likely controls the margin.
- Longwood's backcourt ball security against an Old Dominion defense forcing turnovers on 28.3% of possessions, 36th nationally.
- No line is posted yet. Longwood covered as an 11.5-point underdog at Saint Joseph's, while Old Dominion covered as a 1.5-point underdog against Western Michigan.
Old Dominion's defense comes first
Neither team looks much like last season's version. Old Dominion brings back 29.0% of its minutes and Longwood 26.7%, so last year's numbers say little about either side. Last season's final adjusted ratings had the Lancers 265th in net efficiency and the Monarchs 248th. Those ratings measure points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents. They describe teams that mostly no longer exist.
What Mike Jones' new group has shown is defense. Old Dominion has allowed 48.0 points per game, 24th in Division I. Opponents are making 35.6% of their twos, which ranks 53rd, and the Monarchs block 15.3% of opponent two-point tries. One of those games was a 91-47 rout of Regent, a team without a Division I rating. The other was a 61-49 win over Western Michigan, which finished last season 276th in adjusted net efficiency. Kany Musungay is the only forward among Longwood's top six players by minutes, so the Lancers may have little interior size to test that shot-blocking.
A pace fight in Norfolk
Longwood is playing at 82.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 16th nationally. Old Dominion sits at 69, 247th. The Lancers' number leans heavily on a 123-67 romp over Pfeiffer, the most points Longwood has scored as a Division I program. Freshmen Elijah Thomas and Will Dopfer each scored 12 in their debuts.
The road trip to Saint Joseph's was a sterner test. Longwood trailed 40-28 at halftime and lost 82-73, though the game still went over a closing total of 152.5. Old Dominion's lone lined game went the other way, staying under 155.5 against Western Michigan. The Monarchs led only 30-24 at the break and needed an 11-0 run to close the half. If Old Dominion drags this into the 60s, Longwood's first-week scoring figures won't mean much.
Can Longwood hold the ball
Ball security sank Longwood last season. The Lancers turned it over on 19.9% of possessions, 341st of 365. This season's 13.9% (88th) is cleaner, but it comes with new guards carrying the ball.
Old Dominion has flipped its own identity in the other direction. The Monarchs forced turnovers on just 14.6% of possessions last season (327th) and are at 28.3% now. Khoi Thurmon is averaging 2.5 steals off the bench. Every Longwood turnover hands a slow-paced home team an easy basket it otherwise struggles to find, because Old Dominion is shooting 27.7% from three.
One more Longwood problem to watch in a tight finish: the Lancers are making 46.2% of their free throws, 344th in the country.
Who carries each side
Longwood's new coach, Ronnie Thomas, promoted from assistant, leans on a guard-heavy group. Eastern Kentucky transfer MJ Williams has hit 6 of 11 threes. Alphonzo Billups III, a returner, averages 13.5 points. Jaylen Benard is grabbing 10.0 rebounds a game from the backcourt.
For Old Dominion, returner Zacch Wiggins has taken a larger role, scoring 25 against Western Michigan. Scottie Hubbard provides the perimeter punch, shooting 55.6% from three. Point guard Adante' Holiman, in his final season, is still finding his shot.
Old Dominion hosts Norfolk State on Nov. 11 before this game, then gets Virginia on Nov. 17.
Key players
- MJ Williams (Longwood): Owns a 68.4% effective field goal percentage through two games after posting 48.9% at Eastern Kentucky last season.
- Alphonzo Billups III (Longwood): Scoring 13.5 points per game and shooting 40% from three, up from 8.1 points last season.
- Jaylen Benard (Longwood): Leads the team with 10.0 rebounds per game and carries a 23.5% usage rate.
- Zacch Wiggins (Old Dominion): Averaging 14.0 points on 58.8% shooting after scoring 6.1 per game last season.
- Scottie Hubbard (Old Dominion): Has made 5 of 9 threes for a 158.9 offensive rating off the bench.
- Khoi Thurmon (Old Dominion): Averages 4.5 assists and 2.5 steals in 20.0 minutes a night.
Numbers that matter
| ODU points allowed | 48.0 | Ranks 24th nationally after two home wins, the clearest early sign of a new defensive identity. |
|---|---|---|
| Longwood pace | 82.5 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 16th in Division I, against an Old Dominion team at 69. |
| ODU forced turnover rate | 28.3% | Ranks 36th, a sharp turn from 14.6% last season. |
| Longwood free throw % | 46.2% | Ranks 344th, a liability if the game is close late. |
| Longwood returning minutes | 26.7% | So little is back that last season's Longwood numbers are a weak guide. |
Longwood vs Old Dominion: quick answers
When is Longwood vs Old Dominion?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.