Lipscomb vs Western Carolina prediction: Lipscomb's missing jump shot heads into Western Carolina's rebuilt gym

Two rosters still being introduced

Nobody in Cullowhee should lean on last season's numbers for this one. Western Carolina returns just 14.9% of last season's minutes. Tim Craft, in his third season, rebuilt around four returners, eight transfers and four freshmen. Lipscomb kept more, 42.6% of its minutes, but lost starting centers Grant Asman and Charlie Williams.

Last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had Lipscomb 203rd and Western Carolina 228th in net efficiency. Those describe teams that mostly no longer exist. The one meeting in the last three seasons went to Lipscomb, 83-62 at home last November, but the Catamounts' side of that box score has almost entirely turned over.

Lipscomb's cold start from deep

Kevin Carroll's first Lipscomb team lived behind the arc, shooting 36.2% on threes last season, 53rd in the country. Through two road losses this season, the Bisons are at 25.0%, 284th. Their effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes, sits 282nd.

The slump runs through the returners. Mateo Esmeraldo, a 36.8% three-point shooter last season, is 1 of 9 this season. Titas Sargiunas is 2 of 10. Oregon transfer Takai Simpkins has carried the load at 20.0 points per game, using 30.6% of possessions while on the floor. The cleanest offense has come inside from Devyn Martin, who is shooting 69.2% from the field.

That inside game is worth watching. Western Carolina has allowed opponents to shoot 56.0% on twos, and Lipscomb has little else working right now.

Turnovers decide the possession count

Lipscomb's other early problem is the ball. The Bisons are giving it away on 22.2% of possessions, 287th nationally, a sharp drop from a team that ranked 126th last season. They also rank 318th in offensive rebounding, so empty trips are piling up with no second chances.

Western Carolina is not built to punish that, at least based on one game. The Catamounts forced turnovers at a rate that ranked 322nd against North Carolina, while protecting the ball well themselves, 58th in turnover rate.

The free-throw line offers Lipscomb an edge. The Bisons shoot 84.8% at the stripe, 25th in the country, and Simpkins is at 89.5%. Western Carolina's defense sent North Carolina to the line at a free throw rate (attempts per field-goal attempt) that ranked 339th. If that habit holds, Lipscomb can score without its jumper.

Western Carolina's threes-or-nothing opener

The Catamounts kept North Carolina close almost entirely from the perimeter. They hit 10 threes while shooting 33.9% overall, and a 7-0 run cut the deficit to 48-47 with 14 minutes left before the Tar Heels pulled away 80-72.

The split was extreme. Western Carolina made 41.7% of its threes but only 28.6% of its twos, 353rd nationally. Jaeden Roberts went 4 of 7 from deep for 17 points, and Jaxon Prunty added 18. Sam Houston transfer Isaiah Manning, who averaged 10.7 points there last season, went 1 of 12.

Lipscomb's defense allowed opponents 37.8% from three through two games, 280th. That gives the Catamounts' shooters room, and a better night from Manning inside would give them balance.

What to watch

Both teams arrive rested, Lipscomb after 11 days off and Western Carolina after 12. Each opened with a road game against a ranked-caliber opponent, and both covered big numbers: Lipscomb at Iowa, Western Carolina at North Carolina. Lipscomb's only game against a peer was a 86-79 loss at Southeast Missouri as a 1.5-point favorite.

• Esmeraldo and Sargiunas from three. A return toward last season's form changes Lipscomb's ceiling.
• Lipscomb's turnovers. A clean game removes its biggest leak.
• Western Carolina at the rim. Two-point shooting that poor rarely repeats, but it has to improve for the home side.
• Fouls. Lipscomb's free-throw shooting rewards every whistle.