Lafayette vs St. Bonaventure prediction: Zach Philipkoski and the Daemen imports get a shot at Lafayette's paint
Mike MacDonald's rebuilt Bonnies want to score inside, and Lafayette's opener at Butler showed a defense that couldn't stop anything near the rim.
- Expect St. Bonaventure to pound the interior through Philipkoski and Bill while Lafayette tries to turn the game into a scramble.
- Benjamin Bill's rim protection against Shareef Jackson, the Lafayette forward who carried a 34.1% usage rate at Butler.
- No line is posted yet. St. Bonaventure failed to cover as a 10.5-point favorite in its opener against Youngstown State.
MacDonald's Daemen core
Mike MacDonald didn't arrive at St. Bonaventure alone. He won 275 games at Daemen, including a 61-3 run over his last two seasons, and he brought key pieces from that Division II powerhouse with him. One game in, the imports look like the whole show.
Zach Philipkoski scored 28 points on 10-of-14 shooting in the opener. Ben Bill, another Daemen transplant, added 15 points and 4 blocks. The Bonnies still lost 71-79 at home to Youngstown State, a team ranked 210th in adjusted net efficiency, while closing as a 10.5-point favorite. The supporting cast is the question. NJIT transfer Ari Fulton went 0-of-5 from the floor. St. Bonaventure hosts Cornell on Nov. 11 before Lafayette comes to the Reilly Center, so the rotation gets one more test first.
Lafayette's paint problem
Butler made 69.6% of its two-point shots against Lafayette, which ranks 342nd in Division I. That is the number that should shape this game. St. Bonaventure doesn't need the three: it took only 28.3% of its shots from deep in the opener, 324th nationally. MacDonald's team attacks inside, exactly where the Leopards got carved up.
The Bonnies also protect their own rim. They blocked 22.9% of Youngstown State's two-point attempts, 22nd in the country. That matters because Lafayette's offense runs through Shareef Jackson, who took 10 shots and made 6 of them in 19 minutes at Butler. The Leopards' perimeter offered no relief. They made 16.7% of their threes, and starting guard Beckett Currie went 0-of-6.
Where Lafayette can steal possessions
The Leopards' best weapon was their hands. Lafayette forced turnovers on 25.6% of Butler's possessions, 64th nationally, and freshman Owen Kelly came off the bench for three steals. A Bonnies backcourt built on newcomers could be vulnerable to that pressure.
If the game tightens, St. Bonaventure's free-throw shooting becomes a real concern. The Bonnies made 42.9% from the line against Youngstown State, 349th in Division I. Philipkoski was the only Bonnie to make more than one. Missed free throws are one way a home favorite lets an overmatched visitor hang around.
Little from last season carries over
Last season's numbers point clearly toward the home team. St. Bonaventure finished 133rd in adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), and Lafayette finished 318th. Neither roster resembles that version, though.
St. Bonaventure returns just 14.0% of last season's minutes, with Darryl Simmons II gone to Villanova and Frank Mitchell and Cayden Charles also gone. Lafayette brings back 25.4%. Freshmen Jasraj Gill and Owen Kelly, listed on the official roster, both played at Butler. Treat last season's profiles as background. The opener showed where each team stands now, and that one game favored the Bonnies' frontcourt.
Key players
- Zach Philipkoski (St. Bonaventure): He scored 28 points on 10-of-14 shooting in the opener, including 4-of-7 from three.
- Benjamin Bill (St. Bonaventure): He posted 15 points, 9 rebounds and 4 blocks against Youngstown State.
- Taj Au-Duke (St. Bonaventure): He had 12 points and 3 steals in the opener after leading the Point Park exhibition with 17 points.
- Ari Fulton (St. Bonaventure): He averaged 10.9 points at NJIT last season but went 0-of-5 in his Bonnies debut.
- Shareef Jackson (Lafayette): He scored 14 points on 6-of-10 shooting at Butler with a team-high 34.1% usage rate.
- Cooper Kesler (Lafayette): He played a team-high 32 minutes at Butler and scored 9 points.
- Jasraj Gill (Lafayette): He grabbed 7 rebounds and scored 8 points in 23 minutes in his debut.
- Beckett Currie (Lafayette): He went 0-of-6 from three at Butler while carrying a 24.1% usage rate.
Numbers that matter
| Lafayette opponent 2-point % | 69.6% | Butler's finishing inside ranks Lafayette's opening interior defense 342nd, a bad sign against a Bonnies team that attacks the paint. |
|---|---|---|
| St. Bonaventure block rate | 22.9% | Ranked 22nd nationally, it threatens a Lafayette offense that leans on Shareef Jackson near the rim. |
| St. Bonaventure free throw % | 42.9% | Ranked 349th after one game, it is the Bonnies' most obvious way to give points back. |
| Lafayette forced turnover rate | 25.6% | Ranked 64th, pressure is the Leopards' clearest path to extra possessions. |
| St. Bonaventure returning minutes | 14.0% | So little of last season's roster is back that the 2025-26 numbers say almost nothing about this team. |
Lafayette vs St. Bonaventure: quick answers
When is Lafayette vs St. Bonaventure?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.