Jackson State vs Winthrop prediction: Winthrop's shooters face a Jackson State offense that barely functioned
Winthrop's almost entirely new roster made threes at will in its opener. Jackson State scored 42 at Texas Tech and now has to keep pace in Rock Hill.
- Winthrop's transfer-heavy backcourt should push the tempo at home while Jackson State tries to cut its turnovers and find a shooting touch.
- Daeshun Ruffin, a 22-point scorer last season, against a Winthrop defense that let Queens shoot 63.2% effective field goal percentage.
- No line is posted yet. Jackson State covered a 38.5-point spread at Texas Tech while losing by 34.
A new Winthrop that can shoot
Mark Prosser, in his fifth season at Winthrop, rebuilt almost from scratch. Players on this roster account for just 11.1% of last season's minutes. The school counts 11 new players and five returners, so last season's 23-11 team tells you little about this one.
The opener showed what the new group can do with the ball. Keshawn Fisher, who averaged 5.5 points at Detroit Mercy last season, scored 32 on 12-of-15 shooting in a 103-98 loss to Queens. Spence Sims, the Gardner-Webb transfer picked preseason all-conference, added 19 with five threes. Winthrop made 47.1% from three, 30th in Division I in the early numbers, and posted a 63.9% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times).
The other end was the problem. Queens shot a 63.2% effective field goal percentage, 333rd of 357, and scored 55 in the first half.
Jackson State's offense stalled
Jackson State opened at Texas Tech, a team ranked 20th in adjusted net rating, and lost 42-76. The Tigers threw up threes, with 60.4% of their shots from deep (ninth-most in the country), and made just 20.7% of them.
Ball security was worse. Jackson State turned it over on 33.8% of its possessions, 354th of 357. Dorian McMillian went 3-of-14 and Mike Williams 4-of-12. Daeshun Ruffin, the returning star who averaged 22.0 points with a 35.9% usage rate last season, played 26 minutes and took three shots.
That makes Ruffin the key. Jackson State brings back 55.0% of last season's minutes, and he is the reason its offense can look nothing like the Lubbock version. The bench also has a new coach: Trey Johnson, a former associate head coach, is listed as Mo Williams' successor, though Jackson State's announcement wasn't found.
Turnovers Winthrop may not collect
The obvious edge for Winthrop would be Jackson State's turnovers, but Winthrop didn't force many in its opener. Queens gave it away on just 11.2% of possessions, 338th nationally. Texas Tech feasted on careless Jackson State possessions; Winthrop may need to make its own living through shooting.
Pace favors the home side's style. Winthrop played at 79 possessions per 40 minutes, 44th in the country, and last season's team ranked 17th in pace. More possessions give Winthrop's shooters more chances, though they also leave more room for Jackson State's guards if Ruffin finds a rhythm. Winthrop is also bigger, with a minutes-weighted average height of 77.2 inches to 75.7 for Jackson State.
Home floor, and an 80-62 memory
Both teams come in off 12 days of rest, so neither has a scheduling excuse. Winthrop plays its first home game after opening on a neutral floor, and it was picked third in the Big South behind favorite High Point.
Winthrop won last season's meeting 80-62 in Jackson behind 14 points from Logan Duncomb, who is now at Notre Dame. Jackson State's last-season adjusted defense, 347th of 365, suggests Winthrop's shooters should find space again.
The totals from each opener point in opposite directions. Winthrop's game went over a closing total of 168.5. Jackson State's stayed under 158. With no line posted yet, the first number books hang on this one will show which version of each team the market believes.
Key players
- Keshawn Fisher (Winthrop): Scored 32 on 12-of-15 shooting with five threes and four blocks against Queens.
- Spence Sims (Winthrop): Shot 43% from three at Gardner-Webb last season and went 5-of-12 from deep in his Winthrop debut.
- George Natsvlishvili (Winthrop): Gave Winthrop an interior presence with 16 points and nine rebounds in the opener.
- Kyle Morgan (Winthrop): Came off the bench for 16 points on 5-of-10 three-point shooting.
- Daeshun Ruffin (Jackson State): Averaged 22.0 points and 5.1 assists last season but managed five points at Texas Tech.
- Dorian McMillian (Jackson State): Scored 10 at Texas Tech but needed 14 shots, going 2-of-11 from three.
- Mike Williams (Jackson State): Led the Tigers with 11 points and a team-high 29.5% usage rate in the opener.
- Nikk Williams (Jackson State): Pulled down nine rebounds in 21 minutes off the bench at Texas Tech.
Numbers that matter
| Winthrop returning minutes | 11.1% | Nearly the whole rotation is new, so last season's 23-11 record is a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson State turnover rate | 33.8 | Ranked 354th of 357 after the Texas Tech loss, the biggest reason the offense scored 42. |
| Winthrop 3-point % | 47.1% | The transfer backcourt's shooting in the opener, 30th in Division I. |
| Winthrop opponent effective FG% | 63.2% | Queens shot freely, 333rd of 357, which gives Jackson State's guards an opening. |
| Winthrop forced turnover rate | 11.2% | Ranked 338th, suggesting Winthrop may not punish Jackson State's sloppiness the way Texas Tech did. |
Jackson State vs Winthrop: quick answers
When is Jackson State vs Winthrop?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 2:30 PM ET.